AledoAlumni
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Post by AledoAlumni on Feb 1, 2024 17:26:20 GMT -6
Large district yet again........ Aledo Azle Denton Denton Ryan Granbury Keller Fossil Ridge Birdville Richland Brewer Do you know our non-district schedule? Week 1 Denton Guyer and Week 2 Lancaster.
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AledoAlumni
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Everybody Ropes, Everybody Rides
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Post by AledoAlumni on Feb 1, 2024 18:07:00 GMT -6
Last years results
Aledo- (16-0) 5AD1 State Champions
Azle- (3-7) 5AD1 Missed Playoffs
Denton- (4-7) 5AD2 Bi-District Finalist
Denton Ryan- (8-3) 5AD1 Area Finalist
Granbury- (3-7) 5AD1 Missed Playoffs
Keller Fossil Ridge- (3-7) 6A Missed Playoffs
Birdville- (4-6) 5AD1 Missed Playoffs
Richland- (12-1) 5AD1 Regional Finalist
Brewer- (3-7) 5AD1 Missed Playoffs
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AledoAlumni
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Everybody Ropes, Everybody Rides
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Post by AledoAlumni on Feb 1, 2024 18:18:55 GMT -6
Quick thoughts:
-Aledo, Denton Ryan, Richland, and Abilene are the top teams in R1
- I'd be surprised if Highland Park does not win R2
- College Station, A&M Consolidated, or Barbers Hill most likely win R3
- R4 comes down to Smithson Valley and CC Flour Bluff
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Post by trailcat on Feb 2, 2024 10:38:44 GMT -6
Here are my quick thoughts on D-13: -Will Aledo again sweep Denton Ryan in the next two seasons of district play? -Possibility that Richland's RB could be the best Aledo's defense will face the entire season. However Aledo's defense will face the best RB during practices -With 5 different teams in the district, it appears the strength of competition will be slightly better than the last 2 seasons. -I like our non-district schedule. -District travel not an issue.
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Post by bearcatsmaxpreporter on Feb 2, 2024 19:46:57 GMT -6
I think Aledo's win streak is definitely on the line. District win streak is not completely safe but we *should* win. Tough non-district schedule will warm us up including our new QB.
Below are according to MaxPreps, rankings are within 5A-1. For teams not in 5A-1 last year, I used their MaxPreps rating to see where they'd have ranked in 5A-1 last year.
Aledo #1, 71.0 rating Denton Ryan #9, 44.7 rating Richland #14, 41.6 rating Fossil Ridge #49, 19.1 rating Brewer #52, 16.4 rating Azle #57, 13.4 rating Granbury #72, 7.3 rating Birdville #73, 7.2 rating Denton #77, 2.9 rating
I really do like the MaxPreps rating to not only get an idea of the relative ranking of teams but to understand how large the gap is. Full disclosure, ratings do go negative. South Hills last year was -23.7, and there are 5A and 6A teams in the -40s and 2A and 3A teams on the -70s. But Brewer and Azle in the 10s tells you all you need to know about everyone in our district other than Ryan and Richland. We *should* beat both those teams, but Ryan played us close the last two years, especially last year. Especially if we get scheduled early on in the season, or our new QB takes some time to get adjusted, I think they could conceivably upset us.
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Post by bearcatsmaxpreporter on Feb 2, 2024 20:00:48 GMT -6
I think Aledo's win streak is definitely on the line. District win streak is not completely safe but we *should* win. Tough non-district schedule will warm us up including our new QB. Below are according to MaxPreps, rankings are within 5A-1. For teams not in 5A-1 last year, I used their MaxPreps rating to see where they'd have ranked in 5A-1 last year. Aledo #1, 71.0 rating Denton Ryan #9, 44.7 rating Richland #14, 41.6 rating Fossil Ridge #49, 19.1 rating Brewer #52, 16.4 rating Azle #57, 13.4 rating Granbury #72, 7.3 rating Birdville #73, 7.2 rating Denton #77, 2.9 rating I really do like the MaxPreps rating to not only get an idea of the relative ranking of teams but to understand how large the gap is. Full disclosure, ratings do go negative. South Hills last year was -23.7, and there are 5A and 6A teams in the -40s and 2A and 3A teams on the -70s. But Brewer and Azle in the 10s tells you all you need to know about everyone in our district other than Ryan and Richland. We *should* beat both those teams, but Ryan played us close the last two years, especially last year. Especially if we get scheduled early on in the season, or our new QB takes some time to get adjusted, I think they could conceivably upset us. And for context, the highest ranked remaining 5A team is rated 49.2 (Smithson Valley, who we beat 51-8), and newly 5A Highland Park is 47.3, though it's harder to compare them due to the limited number of games between 5A and 6A teams. But Highland Park was ranked #29 in 6A. I'm pretty confident Aledo would rank higher than #29 if they were in 6A. Anyway, just to say that the playoffs ought not be any harder than our district, unless I am underestimating HP, which is possible. And for more context, Guyer was 52.1, Lancaster 46.6, and Parish Episcopal was 23.2.
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AledoAlumni
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Post by AledoAlumni on Feb 3, 2024 5:35:59 GMT -6
I think Aledo's win streak is definitely on the line. District win streak is not completely safe but we *should* win. Tough non-district schedule will warm us up including our new QB. Below are according to MaxPreps, rankings are within 5A-1. For teams not in 5A-1 last year, I used their MaxPreps rating to see where they'd have ranked in 5A-1 last year. Aledo #1, 71.0 rating Denton Ryan #9, 44.7 rating Richland #14, 41.6 rating Fossil Ridge #49, 19.1 rating Brewer #52, 16.4 rating Azle #57, 13.4 rating Granbury #72, 7.3 rating Birdville #73, 7.2 rating Denton #77, 2.9 rating I really do like the MaxPreps rating to not only get an idea of the relative ranking of teams but to understand how large the gap is. Full disclosure, ratings do go negative. South Hills last year was -23.7, and there are 5A and 6A teams in the -40s and 2A and 3A teams on the -70s. But Brewer and Azle in the 10s tells you all you need to know about everyone in our district other than Ryan and Richland. We *should* beat both those teams, but Ryan played us close the last two years, especially last year. Especially if we get scheduled early on in the season, or our new QB takes some time to get adjusted, I think they could conceivably upset us. And for context, the highest ranked remaining 5A team is rated 49.2 (Smithson Valley, who we beat 51-8), and newly 5A Highland Park is 47.3, though it's harder to compare them due to the limited number of games between 5A and 6A teams. But Highland Park was ranked #29 in 6A. I'm pretty confident Aledo would rank higher than #29 if they were in 6A. Anyway, just to say that the playoffs ought not be any harder than our district, unless I am underestimating HP, which is possible. And for more context, Guyer was 52.1, Lancaster 46.6, and Parish Episcopal was 23.2. You've made it obvious you are a big believer in MaxPreps lol. I think this district is slightly better than the last one. And I think Highland Park is better than Longview. Ultimately, we will have our work cut out for us. Excited to see how this group accepts the challenge.
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Post by bearcatsmaxpreporter on Feb 3, 2024 9:36:45 GMT -6
You've made it obvious you are a big believer in MaxPreps lol. I think this district is slightly better than the last one. And I think Highland Park is better than Longview. Ultimately, we will have our work cut out for us. Excited to see how this group accepts the challenge. Well there's that and gut feelings, and both are fun. I think this district is probably a little better. Ryan is Ryan, and Richland is probably better than Centennial/Northwest, and those are the ones that matter. I do agree Highland Park could be better than I expect. But really none of that matters. If we're as good as we can be, we should be able to take care of business. The real unknowns are within the team, especially with the new QB. I like him, but we're just going to have to see.
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AledoAlumni
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Post by AledoAlumni on Feb 3, 2024 10:18:16 GMT -6
You've made it obvious you are a big believer in MaxPreps lol. I think this district is slightly better than the last one. And I think Highland Park is better than Longview. Ultimately, we will have our work cut out for us. Excited to see how this group accepts the challenge. Well there's that and gut feelings, and both are fun. I think this district is probably a little better. Ryan is Ryan, and Richland is probably better than Centennial/Northwest, and those are the ones that matter. I do agree Highland Park could be better than I expect. But really none of that matters. If we're as good as we can be, we should be able to take care of business. The real unknowns are within the team, especially with the new QB. I like him, but we're just going to have to see. I've been looking at the potential starters and the more I look, the more confident I am we will be fine. Obviously a lot depends on the QB play but on offense we will be going through #9. All the stud sophomores are getting D1 offers. Defensively our D-line will be really good. We return most of the starters and rotational players! They could be the strength of our team. Linebackers will be good. Really just looking for one new starter since #32 will now start. Biggest question mark for our team will be the secondary. Since we will have 4 new starters. I have an idea who will fill in and there is decent potential but we will see what happens when it starts counting. Playoffs for the 29th consecutive season should be in our future.
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Post by bearcatsmaxpreporter on Feb 3, 2024 11:13:56 GMT -6
Obviously a lot depends on the QB play but on offense we will be going through #9. So #10 has looked really good at times, though I'll admit there was a point in the Brewer game where I looked over and saw that #8 wasn't even suited up and I started to get nervous. But just like #8 had to ease in his Jr year, so can #10. We might take a loss or two in non-district play just like 2022. And he's had the benefit of playing full games as QB rather than having to transition from WR like #8. That is unless I'm way off base and we expect someone else via transfer or something. I haven't heard anything about that.
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AledoAlumni
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Everybody Ropes, Everybody Rides
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Post by AledoAlumni on Feb 3, 2024 11:19:32 GMT -6
Obviously a lot depends on the QB play but on offense we will be going through #9. So #10 has looked really good at times, though I'll admit there was a point in the Brewer game where I looked over and saw that #8 wasn't even suited up and I started to get nervous. But just like #8 had to ease in his Jr year, so can #10. We might take a loss or two in non-district play just like 2022. And he's had the benefit of playing full games as QB rather than having to transition from WR like #8. That is unless I'm way off base and we expect someone else via transfer or something. I haven't heard anything about that. #10 is going to start for us. He knows the system and as a sophomore he was the backup QB. I think he will be fine. Just needs to gain experience. Come playoff time, he will be much better than he will against Guyer or Lancaster.
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Post by bearcatsmaxpreporter on Feb 3, 2024 11:32:16 GMT -6
So #10 has looked really good at times, though I'll admit there was a point in the Brewer game where I looked over and saw that #8 wasn't even suited up and I started to get nervous. But just like #8 had to ease in his Jr year, so can #10. We might take a loss or two in non-district play just like 2022. And he's had the benefit of playing full games as QB rather than having to transition from WR like #8. That is unless I'm way off base and we expect someone else via transfer or something. I haven't heard anything about that. #10 is going to start for us. He knows the system and as a sophomore he was the backup QB. I think he will be fine. Just needs to gain experience. Come playoff time, he will be much better than he will against Guyer or Lancaster.Β Haha well only 6-7 more months until kickoff, can't wait!
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AledoAlumni
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Post by AledoAlumni on Feb 3, 2024 20:21:34 GMT -6
#10 is going to start for us. He knows the system and as a sophomore he was the backup QB. I think he will be fine. Just needs to gain experience. Come playoff time, he will be much better than he will against Guyer or Lancaster.Β Haha well only 6-7 more months until kickoff, can't wait! I havent seen the schedule but I really hope we get Denton Ryan at home this season and late in the year.
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Post by bearcatsmaxpreporter on Feb 3, 2024 20:36:37 GMT -6
Haha well only 6-7 more months until kickoff, can't wait! I havent seen the schedule but I really hope we get Denton Ryan at home this season and late in the year. Agreed. Regardless of rankings or ratings or however good each team is in absolute terms, Ryan always plays a really good game against us. If we want to keep our district streak alive, you're right that we'd be better off playing them late in the year. They've got the best shot of knocking us off.
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AledoAlumni
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Post by AledoAlumni on Feb 4, 2024 5:55:35 GMT -6
I havent seen the schedule but I really hope we get Denton Ryan at home this season and late in the year. Agreed. Regardless of rankings or ratings or however good each team is in absolute terms, Ryan always plays a really good game against us. If we want to keep our district streak alive, you're right that we'd be better off playing them late in the year. They've got the best shot of knocking us off. So do you just like the MaxPreps ratings or do you like football statics? Ultimately I was wondering how last years team compared in turnover margin to previous Aledo teams. I don't remember the number but I want to say we were close to even, maybe even negative in turnover differential.
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