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Post by TigerAlum90 on Nov 27, 2023 16:08:11 GMT -6
This is actually a better district for my Tigers. I'm also good with us going to Region III.
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Post by warcat82 on Nov 27, 2023 16:28:12 GMT -6
Man 5A D2 sucks for GP, Alice, and Miller. Going to Brownsville!
It's bad enough they have king, Moody and Ray anyway lol...
Vic West in 10, that's a tough district! Man I feel for the Warriors getting put there. I'll be rooting for them though!
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Post by rtxc1 on Nov 27, 2023 16:47:13 GMT -6
For 1-5A D1, he is assuming the El Paso schools will have three in 5A D1. There's a simple enrollment problen with Ysleta Bel Air: they turned in D2 numbers that are below the current cutoff, much less what will be the new higher cutoff. Then there's the other propblem of assuming that Americas and Eldorado, who did report 5A D1 numbers, won't request an opt-up into 6A where they've been this current alignment. Any or all three of these schools going up or staying in 5A D1 will be detrimental on the budgets of themselves and the Lubbock schools. For 2-5A D-1, WF Legacy is on the bubble most likely so it's not a sure thing they end up in D1. The cutoff the last time was 1890, so it's quite probable that WF Legacy's 1933 won't be above the 5A D1/D2 border. In addition, he is assuming Amarillo Palo Duro and Amarillo Caprock would opt up to D-1 even though they turned in numbers below the last D1/D2 line. The cutoff *should* go down this time. The cutoff has been inflated by all the schools opting up to D1, but CCISD, Victoria West and Baytown Lee won't be doing so, while Houston Austin and Houston Northside will be 4A. (Did I miss anyone?). I found out this weekend that Fort Worth ISD is now opting its 5A D2's up to D1, so the numbers will shift. My projection was that 5A D1 would be 1870-2269, so no projected opt ups for Amarillo ISD. Bel Air was caught in the middle of that, but I believe will find a way down to D2 after the numbers adjust.
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Post by rtxc1 on Nov 27, 2023 16:48:45 GMT -6
Region 1: Districts 1 and 2 explain themselves. It is expected that Ysleta ISD and Horizon will not opt up to D1. Bel Air could be D2, depending on unknown opt ups and if UIL wants to go up and grab it. District 3 looks worse than it is. I'm not leaving a 4-team district unless I have to. If UIL goes up and grabs Bel Air, Lubbock-Cooper is the next school up. Lubbock HS and Palo Duro are within 4 more spots. But this is what I have for now. GCISD would love this district, as Abilene and Wichita Falls aren't that far. 1 long trip to Plainview wouldn't be bad for them. District 4 is self-explanatory. Region 2: I was torn on whether to put the Killeen district here or not, but it makes more sense to have East Texas in Region 2 when you look at the map. District 5 is largely the same as what we have now, while Crandall and Kaufman fit in nicely in District 6. If the divisional cutoff goes up, Dallas Samuell could drop to D2 - whether UIL chooses a 10-team district or to move Crandall/Kaufman out is the question. Districts 7 and 8 go together nicely, though Sulphur Springs could slide to D8 if that spot is needed for another school. Region 3: I don't know how UIL would number these districts, so I stuck with what works (I would have done DFW/Killeen, then Austin, then Houston, but there's no precedent for that). Districts 9 and 10 are packed at 9 schools each. Brenham, Bryan Rudder, and Victoria West are outliers, so I fit this together the best I could. VW to south Houston is ideal if the Coastal Bend isn't available. Districts 11 and 12 fit together nicely. Region 4: Districts 13 and 14 are about as good as one can get. I moved AH out of the SAISD district, which South San, Uvalde, Somerset, and Boerne join the fold. There are 11 RGV schools, so they had to be split up. Brownsville ISD joins the Coastal Bend in D15, while the remaining schools are D16. I believe Padilla is projecting a cutoff of 1340, which would remove Valley View and Moody, cleaning up these districts. The problem there is the total number of 5A/6A schools is reduced to 495 (it's currently 503). I'm not ready to make that move. Awesome stuff man. Do you have Davenport #'s because heard they think they are staying 4a. Again thanks. Davenport came in at 1290. I will likely be raising my lower cutoff to 1290, so they are on the bubble.
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Post by rtxc1 on Nov 27, 2023 17:50:18 GMT -6
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Post by antlers on Nov 27, 2023 18:04:14 GMT -6
Awesome stuff man. Do you have Davenport #'s because heard they think they are staying 4a. Again thanks. Davenport came in at 1290. I will likely be raising my lower cutoff to 1290, so they are on the bubble. Appreciate the response.
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Post by oldtarponman on Nov 27, 2023 18:16:50 GMT -6
Hey rtxc1, couple of questions since it seems you have the entire list of numbers.
Which schools on the list have populations between 590 and 595?
Also, what current 4A-D1 schools would fall into 4A-D2 assuming Carl Padilla's 990 (or is it 989?) cutoff?
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Post by drobles1376 on Nov 27, 2023 18:29:53 GMT -6
Not bad, similar driving distance if Calhoun had to drive to Navasota.
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Post by rtxc1 on Nov 27, 2023 18:42:49 GMT -6
Hey rtxc1, couple of questions since it seems you have the entire list of numbers. Which schools on the list have populations between 590 and 595? Also, what current 4A-D1 schools would fall into 4A-D2 assuming Carl Padilla's 990 (or is it 989?) cutoff? Ingleside 595 Sweeny 594 Port Isabel 594 Pearsall 591 Kemp 590 Caldwell 590 Burnet 900 Henderson 982.5 FW Diamond Hill 969 Lake Worth 961 Brownwood 960 Navasota 960 Brazosport 959 Carrollton Ranchview 959 Mineral Wells 953 China Spring 952 Jarrell 951
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Post by oldtarponman on Nov 27, 2023 18:59:28 GMT -6
Hey rtxc1, couple of questions since it seems you have the entire list of numbers. Which schools on the list have populations between 590 and 595? Also, what current 4A-D1 schools would fall into 4A-D2 assuming Carl Padilla's 990 (or is it 989?) cutoff? Ingleside 595 Sweeny 594 Port Isabel 594 Pearsall 591 Kemp 590 Caldwell 590 Burnet 900 Henderson 982.5 FW Diamond Hill 969 Lake Worth 961 Brownwood 960 Navasota 960 Brazosport 959 Carrollton Ranchview 959 Mineral Wells 953 China Spring 952 Jarrell 951 Didn't Burnet turn in 990? That's what I see on the DCTF list. But that's interesting. If the 4A/3A cutoff was bumped up to 595, it would only add 6 schools to 3AD1. I know the UIL is big on trying to keep the ratio of kids between bigger/smaller schools below 2:1 since that's been an issue at the 4A level for a good bit. If the top end of 4AD2 is going as high as 990 (might as well call it 1000) wouldn't it make a bit more sense to have the 4A/3A cutoff closer to 600? That would make it a 5:3 ratio and a bit more fair. Would it be perfect? No. But it's better than having a school that is at or nearly twice the size of yours. Also, what is Padilla's range for 3AD1? I know he's got top of 3A at 590, but what's the bottom end?
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Post by picodegallo on Nov 27, 2023 19:19:09 GMT -6
Am I reading this right for District 16? Calallen TM Hidalgo Zapata Argh! Vomit! My eyes are bleeding! How in the hell do you find seven non district games? I officially petition to Opt Up to 5A D2 and I take back everything I ever said about the CCISD and CcWarcat if something like this is in the cards.
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Post by rtxc1 on Nov 27, 2023 19:29:24 GMT -6
Ingleside 595 Sweeny 594 Port Isabel 594 Pearsall 591 Kemp 590 Caldwell 590 Burnet 900 Henderson 982.5 FW Diamond Hill 969 Lake Worth 961 Brownwood 960 Navasota 960 Brazosport 959 Carrollton Ranchview 959 Mineral Wells 953 China Spring 952 Jarrell 951 Didn't Burnet turn in 990? That's what I see on the DCTF list. But that's interesting. If the 4A/3A cutoff was bumped up to 595, it would only add 6 schools to 3AD1. I know the UIL is big on trying to keep the ratio of kids between bigger/smaller schools below 2:1 since that's been an issue at the 4A level for a good bit. If the top end of 4AD2 is going as high as 990 (might as well call it 1000) wouldn't it make a bit more sense to have the 4A/3A cutoff closer to 600? That would make it a 5:3 ratio and a bit more fair. Would it be perfect? No. But it's better than having a school that is at or nearly twice the size of yours. Also, what is Padilla's range for 3AD1? I know he's got top of 3A at 590, but what's the bottom end? Burnet did submit 990. I just typed it down wrong. I don't follow Padilla, so I don't know what he's projecting. Also, UIL's goal is to have a 2:1 ratio for conference cutoffs, NOT divisions. But, depending on the 5A cutoff and whether or not some charter schools will be forced to opt up, I think the cutoff could very easily be 560.
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Post by oldtarponman on Nov 27, 2023 19:35:45 GMT -6
Am I reading this right for District 16? Calallen TM Hidalgo Zapata Argh! Vomit! My eyes are bleeding! How in the hell do you find seven non district games? I officially petition to Opt Up to 5A D2 and I take back everything I ever said about the CCISD and CcWarcat if something like this is in the cards. Play schools from Mexico. It's what Port Isabel had to do.
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Post by picodegallo on Nov 27, 2023 19:43:17 GMT -6
Am I reading this right for District 16? Calallen TM Hidalgo Zapata Argh! Vomit! My eyes are bleeding! How in the hell do you find seven non district games? I officially petition to Opt Up to 5A D2 and I take back everything I ever said about the CCISD and CcWarcat if something like this is in the cards. Play schools from Mexico. It's what Port Isabel had to do. We played one the last two years. I can see where at least through week five we could fill it out with local and some nearby 4As like Cuero, PLC , etc if they have six team districts. We might have to look at that other four team district out near Pecos for some games.
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Post by oldtarponman on Nov 27, 2023 19:53:33 GMT -6
Am I reading this right for District 16? Calallen TM Hidalgo Zapata Argh! Vomit! My eyes are bleeding! How in the hell do you find seven non district games? I officially petition to Opt Up to 5A D2 and I take back everything I ever said about the CCISD and CcWarcat if something like this is in the cards. I also wouldn't be too surprised if Hidalgo opts up to 5AD2 in order to be in an RGV district.
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