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Post by picodegallo on Nov 26, 2023 22:05:31 GMT -6
That would be a long trip for Laredo and Victoria! May want to book flights now or do multi day travel like ccw does for those Corpus to Victoria trips... š¤£š¤£š¤£ CC Warcat will FINALLY see a Region thatās tough to win. I hope it does look something like this
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Post by ricosuave on Nov 26, 2023 22:17:38 GMT -6
If DeSoto does move to 5AD1 and elects to not move up, well, I will buy a ringside ticket at three times the exchange value when they meet Aledo in the 2024 state semis. 8/25 @ Allen W 39-7 9/9 @ South Oak Cliff W 54-14 9/15 vs Skyline* W 42-17 9/22 @ Waxahachie* W 56-35 10/6 @ Mansfield Legacy* W 64-3 10/13 vs Lake Ridge* W 64-3 10/20 @ Cedar Hill* W 35-13 10/28 vs Duncanville* W 49-35 11/2 @ Mansfield* W 63-24 11/10 @ Harker Heights** W 50-10 11/17 @ Wylie East** W 42-20 11/24 vs Willis** W 65-31 12-1 (8-0) If they move down, 5A D1 will be owned by them for the next 2 years. It's not gonna be close for anyone. In fact I feel for anyone who plays those guys the next 3 or 4 years anyway. They have some serious talent in their pipeline for the next 3 or 4 years at least. In all due respect to Aledo, they too have good talent in their pipeline. They do not lose too many games at the freshman and JV levels. Their program is built up one side and down the other. That is why it would be an intriguing matchup for sure. If the mock districts were to hold to form, I think Centennial would benefit from the region I district but not sure that Burleson would. And, if DeSoto were to elect to stay 6A and it sent the BISD schools to the mock region II district with Highland Park and the Mesquite schools, I think it would certainly be a tougher draw for both Centennial and Burleson going that direction. The Elks would benefit more if they were to stay 5A DII but the numbers may not allow that to happen.
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Post by warcat82 on Nov 26, 2023 22:35:46 GMT -6
If they move down, 5A D1 will be owned by them for the next 2 years. It's not gonna be close for anyone. In fact I feel for anyone who plays those guys the next 3 or 4 years anyway. They have some serious talent in their pipeline for the next 3 or 4 years at least. In all due respect to Aledo, they too have good talent in their pipeline.Ā They do not lose too many games at the freshman and JV levels.Ā Their program is built up one side and down the other.Ā That is why it would be an intriguing matchup for sure.Ā Ā If the mock districts were to hold to form, I think Centennial would benefit from the region I district but not sure that Burleson would.Ā And, if DeSoto were to elect to stay 6A and it sent the BISD schools to the mock region II district with Highland Park and the Mesquite schools, I think it would certainly be a tougher draw for both Centennial and Burleson going that direction.Ā The Elks would benefit more if they were to stay 5A DII but the numbers may not allow that to happen.Ā Ā Oh I have a ton of respect for Aledo. They for sure have talent too... DeSoto is just at a level I have not seen in a high school program. Even the SLC, Westlake, Katy, and Lake Travis dynasties were not as crazy stacked in my opinion as DeSoto. I agree with you on your statements on the alignments with BISD or any district that has to match up with Aledo or DeSoto really. If they happen to both be in 5A D1, DeSoto wins it all though. If DeSoto opts up and Aledo gets to stay down, that will be good for Aledo, and bad news for 6A D2 playoff opponents. Again DeSoto will be there wrecking shop and taking names.
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Post by mike03car on Nov 27, 2023 2:16:39 GMT -6
Here is the map:www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?mid=1pLr8j7IAC2cUiCaxc98odUEshSRUeac&usp=sharingRegion 1:Districts 1 and 2 are a necessity with the EP-area having only 3 schools. Wichita Falls Legacy could go to DFW, but I'd prefer to keep 6 schools out west. Districts 3 and 4 should only be affected by DeSoto's decision. If DeSoto opts up, I believe Burleson ISD would replace them in D7. Brewer and (likely) Azle would move down to D3. Region 2:Districts 5 and 6 are pretty self-explanatory. The Colony could spin over to D4 if UIL desired, but it would be a silly move. With Longview likely moving up to 6A, I kept Lufkin out of District 7. Dallas ISD is unlikely to be placed here, so the district looks funky. I mentioned Burleson ISD replacing DeSoto, if needed. Birdville ISD could be the replacement instead, but that causes more issues on the west side. District 8 is currently a west Houston district and Killeen is in D4. But looking at the map, it is clear that the College Station/Killeen/Austin district makes more sense as the new D8. Region 3:
District 9 includes Lufkin because all of the trips are under 3 hours, unlike what DFW would bring. I made this the 7-team district to limit travel for all. Districts 10 and 11 are currently flip flopped, but look at the map and you should see why I made the change. Galena Park probably wants to be with HISD, but needed to be moved to make room for Spring Woods and Kempner. Also, Goose Creek Memorial should be 6A, so I am assuming Lee will continue to opt up to 5A D1. We'll see. I don't have much to say for District 12 - I think it speaks for itself. Region 4:Distirct 13 is where the real conundrum begins. Victoria East could go join HISD/Kempner/Spring Woods for a 9-team district, but I chose north SA instead. No good options here, but I thought this was the best one for the whole picture. District 14 is pretty self-explanatory. I assume Southside will opt up again? Who knows, but it wouldn't change too much if they didn't. Districts 15 and 16 are what they are. The Coastal Bend schools could form a 6-team district with Laredo (or 7-teamer with Vic East), but it would cause several other 9-team districts to be formed and not reduce much travel for the schools involved. I may do another mock to show what that would look like. For 1-5A D1, he is assuming the El Paso schools will have three in 5A D1. There's a simple enrollment problen with Ysleta Bel Air: they turned in D2 numbers that are below the current cutoff, much less what will be the new higher cutoff. Then there's the other propblem of assuming that Americas and Eldorado, who did report 5A D1 numbers, won't request an opt-up into 6A where they've been this current alignment. Any or all three of these schools going up or staying in 5A D1 will be detrimental on the budgets of themselves and the Lubbock schools. For 2-5A D-1, WF Legacy is on the bubble most likely so it's not a sure thing they end up in D1. The cutoff the last time was 1890, so it's quite probable that WF Legacy's 1933 won't be above the 5A D1/D2 border. In addition, he is assuming Amarillo Palo Duro and Amarillo Caprock would opt up to D-1 even though they turned in numbers below the last D1/D2 line.
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Post by mike03car on Nov 27, 2023 2:33:28 GMT -6
I have it at 2270. The lowest it can go is 2265, if Austin HS is under that number. That would make Brownsville Rivera, Aledo, and Edinburg Vela 6A, and would have a full 250 schools plus opt ups (3 Garland schools, Desoto?, 2-3 EP-area schools?, Pasadena?). There's plenty of room for all those. The highest it could realistically go is 2285. But that puts a strain on 5A and would likely reduce the number of total 5A/6A schools, negatively affecting 4A. Aledo barely misses the cutoff lol. Heard DeSoto was going to opt up for travel reasons. We all know it's Aledo + a few.
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Post by ricosuave on Nov 27, 2023 7:00:56 GMT -6
In all due respect to Aledo, they too have good talent in their pipeline. They do not lose too many games at the freshman and JV levels. Their program is built up one side and down the other. That is why it would be an intriguing matchup for sure. If the mock districts were to hold to form, I think Centennial would benefit from the region I district but not sure that Burleson would. And, if DeSoto were to elect to stay 6A and it sent the BISD schools to the mock region II district with Highland Park and the Mesquite schools, I think it would certainly be a tougher draw for both Centennial and Burleson going that direction. The Elks would benefit more if they were to stay 5A DII but the numbers may not allow that to happen. Oh I have a ton of respect for Aledo. They for sure have talent too... DeSoto is just at a level I have not seen in a high school program. Even the SLC, Westlake, Katy, and Lake Travis dynasties were not as crazy stacked in my opinion as DeSoto. I agree with you on your statements on the alignments with BISD or any district that has to match up with Aledo or DeSoto really. If they happen to both be in 5A D1, DeSoto wins it all though. If DeSoto opts up and Aledo gets to stay down, that will be good for Aledo, and bad news for 6A D2 playoff opponents. Again DeSoto will be there wrecking shop and taking names. Totally agreed.
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Post by ricosuave on Nov 27, 2023 7:07:31 GMT -6
Here is the map:www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/edit?mid=1pLr8j7IAC2cUiCaxc98odUEshSRUeac&usp=sharingRegion 1:Districts 1 and 2 are a necessity with the EP-area having only 3 schools. Wichita Falls Legacy could go to DFW, but I'd prefer to keep 6 schools out west. Districts 3 and 4 should only be affected by DeSoto's decision. If DeSoto opts up, I believe Burleson ISD would replace them in D7. Brewer and (likely) Azle would move down to D3. Region 2:Districts 5 and 6 are pretty self-explanatory. The Colony could spin over to D4 if UIL desired, but it would be a silly move. With Longview likely moving up to 6A, I kept Lufkin out of District 7. Dallas ISD is unlikely to be placed here, so the district looks funky. I mentioned Burleson ISD replacing DeSoto, if needed. Birdville ISD could be the replacement instead, but that causes more issues on the west side. District 8 is currently a west Houston district and Killeen is in D4. But looking at the map, it is clear that the College Station/Killeen/Austin district makes more sense as the new D8. Region 3:
District 9 includes Lufkin because all of the trips are under 3 hours, unlike what DFW would bring. I made this the 7-team district to limit travel for all. Districts 10 and 11 are currently flip flopped, but look at the map and you should see why I made the change. Galena Park probably wants to be with HISD, but needed to be moved to make room for Spring Woods and Kempner. Also, Goose Creek Memorial should be 6A, so I am assuming Lee will continue to opt up to 5A D1. We'll see. I don't have much to say for District 12 - I think it speaks for itself. Region 4:Distirct 13 is where the real conundrum begins. Victoria East could go join HISD/Kempner/Spring Woods for a 9-team district, but I chose north SA instead. No good options here, but I thought this was the best one for the whole picture. District 14 is pretty self-explanatory. I assume Southside will opt up again? Who knows, but it wouldn't change too much if they didn't. Districts 15 and 16 are what they are. The Coastal Bend schools could form a 6-team district with Laredo (or 7-teamer with Vic East), but it would cause several other 9-team districts to be formed and not reduce much travel for the schools involved. I may do another mock to show what that would look like. For 1-5A D1, he is assuming the El Paso schools will have three in 5A D1. There's a simple enrollment problen with Ysleta Bel Air: they turned in D2 numbers that are below the current cutoff, much less what will be the new higher cutoff. Then there's the other propblem of assuming that Americas and Eldorado, who did report 5A D1 numbers, won't request an opt-up into 6A where they've been this current alignment. Any or all three of these schools going up or staying in 5A D1 will be detrimental on the budgets of themselves and the Lubbock schools. For 2-5A D-1, WF Legacy is on the bubble most likely so it's not a sure thing they end up in D1. The cutoff the last time was 1890, so it's quite probable that WF Legacy's 1933 won't be above the 5A D1/D2 border. In addition, he is assuming Amarillo Palo Duro and Amarillo Caprock would opt up to D-1 even though they turned in numbers below the last D1/D2 line. If this scenario were to hold true, and I don't have any reason to doubt your numbers, it would sure create a mess in 5D1 region 1. It could more than likely shift BISD schools further west along with Aledo. I remember making that trip in the early ought's out to Abeline when the Elks were in a district with them. Those Steve Warren with a RB by the name of Hershel Sims teams were real good. Won their last state title then.
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Post by antlers on Nov 27, 2023 8:29:49 GMT -6
Region 1: Districts 1 and 2 explain themselves. It is expected that Ysleta ISD and Horizon will not opt up to D1. Bel Air could be D2, depending on unknown opt ups and if UIL wants to go up and grab it. District 3 looks worse than it is. I'm not leaving a 4-team district unless I have to. If UIL goes up and grabs Bel Air, Lubbock-Cooper is the next school up. Lubbock HS and Palo Duro are within 4 more spots. But this is what I have for now. GCISD would love this district, as Abilene and Wichita Falls aren't that far. 1 long trip to Plainview wouldn't be bad for them. District 4 is self-explanatory. Region 2: I was torn on whether to put the Killeen district here or not, but it makes more sense to have East Texas in Region 2 when you look at the map. District 5 is largely the same as what we have now, while Crandall and Kaufman fit in nicely in District 6. If the divisional cutoff goes up, Dallas Samuell could drop to D2 - whether UIL chooses a 10-team district or to move Crandall/Kaufman out is the question. Districts 7 and 8 go together nicely, though Sulphur Springs could slide to D8 if that spot is needed for another school. Region 3: I don't know how UIL would number these districts, so I stuck with what works (I would have done DFW/Killeen, then Austin, then Houston, but there's no precedent for that). Districts 9 and 10 are packed at 9 schools each. Brenham, Bryan Rudder, and Victoria West are outliers, so I fit this together the best I could. VW to south Houston is ideal if the Coastal Bend isn't available. Districts 11 and 12 fit together nicely. Region 4: Districts 13 and 14 are about as good as one can get. I moved AH out of the SAISD district, which South San, Uvalde, Somerset, and Boerne join the fold. There are 11 RGV schools, so they had to be split up. Brownsville ISD joins the Coastal Bend in D15, while the remaining schools are D16. I believe Padilla is projecting a cutoff of 1340, which would remove Valley View and Moody, cleaning up these districts. The problem there is the total number of 5A/6A schools is reduced to 495 (it's currently 503). I'm not ready to make that move. Awesome stuff man. Do you have Davenport #'s because heard they think they are staying 4a. Again thanks.
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Post by Clemensbuff on Nov 27, 2023 8:39:27 GMT -6
Oh I have a ton of respect for Aledo. They for sure have talent too... DeSoto is just at a level I have not seen in a high school program. Even the SLC, Westlake, Katy, and Lake Travis dynasties were not as crazy stacked in my opinion as DeSoto. I agree with you on your statements on the alignments with BISD or any district that has to match up with Aledo or DeSoto really. If they happen to both be in 5A D1, DeSoto wins it all though. If DeSoto opts up and Aledo gets to stay down, that will be good for Aledo, and bad news for 6A D2 playoff opponents. Again DeSoto will be there wrecking shop and taking names. Totally agreed. I totally agree with wc82. Aledo is unbelievably good without a doubt and will beat 95% of the 6a teams in this state. But, they'd have 0 chance of beating Desoto. Go watch that DS/Willis game from this past week and see what they did to that Willis team. That Willis team was no joke and they dismantled them. It would be good for not only Aledo, but all other 5a D1 teams if the Eagles opt up to 6a for the next couple years because if they don't, they will win the title both years.
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Post by butchdog on Nov 27, 2023 8:39:32 GMT -6
Enough talk about 5A - I'm a 4A guy. Let's see some 4A stuff !!!
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Post by drobles1376 on Nov 27, 2023 12:28:35 GMT -6
Enough talk about 5A - I'm a 4A guy. Let's see some 4A stuff !!! Iāll post possible districts for Calhoun using the 900-1279 cutoff. 15-4A Region 4 Beeville 1024 Calhoun 1029 Calallen 1183 Tuloso-Midway 1101 Rockport-Fulton 898 ** opt-up for travel purposes 12-4A Region 3 Calhoun 1029 Bay City 1038 El Campo 1004 Needville 1119 Stafford 1102 Navasota 960 Brazosport 947.5 ** havenāt turned in their snapshot, number from previous realignment
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Post by picodegallo on Nov 27, 2023 12:40:55 GMT -6
Enough talk about 5A - I'm a 4A guy. Let's see some 4A stuff !!! Iāll post possible districts for Calhoun using the 900-1279 cutoff. 15-4A Region 4 Beeville 1024 Calhoun 1029 Calallen 1183 Tuloso-Midway 1101 Rockport-Fulton 898 ** opt-up for travel purposes 12-4A Region 3 Calhoun 1029 Bay City 1038 El Campo 1004 Needville 1119 Stafford 1102 Navasota 960 Brazosport 947.5 ** havenāt turned in their snapshot, number from previous realignment As a Calallen fan, I'd approve of your scenario. But I fear we will be placed in the same yawner of a district we've been in the last three years.
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Post by drobles1376 on Nov 27, 2023 14:22:27 GMT -6
Iāll post possible districts for Calhoun using the 900-1279 cutoff. 15-4A Region 4 Beeville 1024 Calhoun 1029 Calallen 1183 Tuloso-Midway 1101 Rockport-Fulton 898 ** opt-up for travel purposes 12-4A Region 3 Calhoun 1029 Bay City 1038 El Campo 1004 Needville 1119 Stafford 1102 Navasota 960 Brazosport 947.5 ** havenāt turned in their snapshot, number from previous realignment As a Calallen fan, I'd approve ofĀ your scenario.Ā Ā But I fear we will be placed in the same yawner of a district we've been in the last three years. I hope not, the valley should have Port Isabel, Grulla, La Feria, Kingsville, Hidalgo, and Zapata. I took Calhoun out of our district now, because I feel La Vernia, Floresville, and Pleasanton will be added to Somerset, Fredericksburg, Uvalde district. I know they lost Boerne and maybe the San Antonio team. Rockport is the kicker, do they opt up to make it a five team district in 15-4A, D1 or do they go 15-4A, Div 2 with Orange Grove, Sinton, Ingleside, West Oso, and Robstown. Just depends on where that bottom number lands. This is just for kicks and giggles.
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Post by oldtarponman on Nov 27, 2023 14:39:23 GMT -6
As a Calallen fan, I'd approve of your scenario. But I fear we will be placed in the same yawner of a district we've been in the last three years. I hope not, the valley should have Port Isabel, Grulla, La Feria, Kingsville, Hidalgo, and Zapata. I took Calhoun out of our district now, because I feel La Vernia, Floresville, and Pleasanton will be added to Somerset, Fredericksburg, Uvalde district. I know they lost Boerne and maybe the San Antonio team. Rockport is the kicker, do they opt up to make it a five team district in 15-4A, D1 or do they go 15-4A, Div 2 with Orange Grove, Sinton, Ingleside, West Oso, and Robstown. Just depends on where that bottom number lands. This is just for kicks and giggles. Assuming Carl Padilla's prediction of 4A Div 2 range of 590-990, both Kingsville and La Feria would drop from Div 1 to Div 2. That leaves Hidalgo and Zapata, though to be honest IDK what # Zapata turned in. Calallen most likely goes South again, but will have more Coastal Bend teams in the district. There is talk, though, that Hidalgo may opt up to 5A Div. 2 for travel reasons. So there's a chance D16 Div. 1 will be an entirely Coastal Bend district + Zapata. In 4A Div. 2, Orange Grove, West Oso, Bishop, and Raymondville are all dropping to 3A. The remaining teams would be Port Isabel, La Feria, La Grulla, Kingsville, Robstown, Sinton, Ingleside, and Rockport. I doubt the UIL will want to form a large 8-team district, as they don't like such large districts in the lower classifications. I could see PI, La Feria, Grulla, Kingsville, and Robstown in a 5-team district with Sinton, Ingleside, and Rockport going North, or maybe even going West.
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Post by butchdog on Nov 27, 2023 15:59:25 GMT -6
Enough talk about 5A - I'm a 4A guy. Let's see some 4A stuff !!! What I really want is rtx1's 4A-1 & 2 - all 4 regions with maps
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