|
Post by mattsteppdctf on Jun 27, 2023 6:27:56 GMT -6
I actually feel like Calpreps is the least accurate between Padilla and PigskinPrep but I've never sat down and did a data dive....all computer polls have their blind spots (dont take injuries into account, only look at the final score not game flow etc)....but human polls have blind spots primarily from inherent biases as well....I definitely use the Padilla and Jerry as a supplement to my personal rankings during the season almost like a guardrail....If I'm way off from one or both then I usually take a second look to see if I've missed something I agree that all computer rankings have some flaws. I'd love to see exactly who's computer is the most accurate in picking the games. I suspect they all are pretty close percentage wise picking the winners/losers. Last, you keep saying that Judson is not the same team up front as they used to be but if memory serves me they've have had multiple kids sign with power 5 schools on both sides of the ball from their lines in the last 4-5 years including one that went pretty high in the draft from a&m. I think Judson still has a speed and size advantage over most teams they play and they certainly would have had it against SB last year as well. Judson's last great teams were the ones with Julon Williams that couldn't beat Lake Travis in the playoffs..that was 2016-2017 and the decline has really been noticeable since then. 2015 when they lost to North Shore they were clearly the better team, but North Shore was the more disciplined team I remember being on the field pregame last year with Judson with a noted national recruiting analyst and we both remarked how small Judson was in comparison to past teams, but then I went back and looked at tape from 2020 and 2021 and noticed the exact same thing...small, not very good up front and extremely sloppy...credit to Coach Soto they were much less sloppy in 2022 but still lacked physically IMO
|
|
|
Post by SouthTexasBloodsport on Jun 27, 2023 9:42:46 GMT -6
Checking calpreps computer prediction for last year had Judson over SB 31-28. I still think it would be more. Thats now 3 computer projections that have it as a close game plus me seeing the two teams in person saying basically the same thing...if you took the names Judson and San Benito away from those teams and look at the data, the film and the results people would see the same thing...but that inherent bias of those silver helmets and the Judson logo and knowing its an RGV team has people hoodwinked With a straight face you're gonna tell us SB would have also only lost to Steele by 1 point in overtime? You can say what you want on a forum to justify your ranking but you'd never put money on it.
|
|
|
Post by SouthTexasBloodsport on Jun 27, 2023 9:46:02 GMT -6
I agree that all computer rankings have some flaws. I'd love to see exactly who's computer is the most accurate in picking the games. I suspect they all are pretty close percentage wise picking the winners/losers. Last, you keep saying that Judson is not the same team up front as they used to be but if memory serves me they've have had multiple kids sign with power 5 schools on both sides of the ball from their lines in the last 4-5 years including one that went pretty high in the draft from a&m. I think Judson still has a speed and size advantage over most teams they play and they certainly would have had it against SB last year as well. Judson's last great teams were the ones with Julon Williams that couldn't beat Lake Travis in the playoffs..that was 2016-2017 and the decline has really been noticeable since then. 2015 when they lost to North Shore they were clearly the better team, but North Shore was the more disciplined team I remember being on the field pregame last year with Judson with a noted national recruiting analyst and we both remarked how small Judson was in comparison to past teams, but then I went back and looked at tape from 2020 and 2021 and noticed the exact same thing...small, not very good up front and extremely sloppy...credit to Coach Soto they were much less sloppy in 2022 but still lacked physically IMO Judson doesn't need one of their teams with a great record and playoff run to justify the stupidity of a poll that has them behind SB. Judson is still putting players on D1 rosters regardless of their w/L record.
|
|
|
Post by mattsteppdctf on Jun 27, 2023 10:30:39 GMT -6
Judson's last great teams were the ones with Julon Williams that couldn't beat Lake Travis in the playoffs..that was 2016-2017 and the decline has really been noticeable since then. 2015 when they lost to North Shore they were clearly the better team, but North Shore was the more disciplined team I remember being on the field pregame last year with Judson with a noted national recruiting analyst and we both remarked how small Judson was in comparison to past teams, but then I went back and looked at tape from 2020 and 2021 and noticed the exact same thing...small, not very good up front and extremely sloppy...credit to Coach Soto they were much less sloppy in 2022 but still lacked physically IMO Judson doesn't need one of their teams with a great record and playoff run to justify the stupidity of a poll that has them behind SB. Judson is still putting players on D1 rosters regardless of their w/L record. You are entitled to your opinion as am I....but I definitely feel the data along with my first hand account gives some additional credence to what my opinion is...
|
|
|
Post by mattsteppdctf on Jun 27, 2023 10:34:50 GMT -6
Thats now 3 computer projections that have it as a close game plus me seeing the two teams in person saying basically the same thing...if you took the names Judson and San Benito away from those teams and look at the data, the film and the results people would see the same thing...but that inherent bias of those silver helmets and the Judson logo and knowing its an RGV team has people hoodwinked With a straight face you're gonna tell us SB would have also only lost to Steele by 1 point in overtime? You can say what you want on a forum to justify your ranking but you'd never put money on it. Football is a game of matchups and every game has its own story...last year I think Judson vs San Benito was a one score game favoring Judson...this year our rating system has San Benito over Judson...we'll see what Padilla has and then we'll see what the first few weeks brings...both teams have similar resumes on paper going into the season with returning starters etc
|
|
|
Post by Clemensbuff on Jun 27, 2023 13:18:32 GMT -6
I agree that all computer rankings have some flaws. I'd love to see exactly who's computer is the most accurate in picking the games. I suspect they all are pretty close percentage wise picking the winners/losers. Last, you keep saying that Judson is not the same team up front as they used to be but if memory serves me they've have had multiple kids sign with power 5 schools on both sides of the ball from their lines in the last 4-5 years including one that went pretty high in the draft from a&m. I think Judson still has a speed and size advantage over most teams they play and they certainly would have had it against SB last year as well. Judson's last great teams were the ones with Julon Williams that couldn't beat Lake Travis in the playoffs..that was 2016-2017 and the decline has really been noticeable since then. 2015 when they lost to North Shore they were clearly the better team, but North Shore was the more disciplined team I remember being on the field pregame last year with Judson with a noted national recruiting analyst and we both remarked how small Judson was in comparison to past teams, but then I went back and looked at tape from 2020 and 2021 and noticed the exact same thing...small, not very good up front and extremely sloppy...credit to Coach Soto they were much less sloppy in 2022 but still lacked physically IMO I agree with you on the 2016 & 17 Judson teams being their last really good teams. They were big, strong, and fast but still were not disciplined. Steele managed to beat them in 2016 at home even though the Knight's stud QB, RB, and two other starters were sidelined due to injuries that game. Judson may not have been as big up front last year but I do stand by what I said in the earlier post that they have put multiple players in power 5 schools off their lines the last 5-6 years. I honestly only saw Judson on TV last year and not in person to judge it well like you did.
|
|