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Post by mattsteppdctf on Jun 26, 2023 5:41:32 GMT -6
I saw Judson last year in person and I saw San Benito last year in person....it'd be a close game...they weren't far apart, but I'd pick Judson last year by less than a score... I know Judson is the South Texas boogeyman from the 80s and 90s but this aint your father's Judson...things have changed a lot there mainly with their play up front on both sides of the ball...they aren't what they used to be and San Benito is not terrible...they beat a district runner-up from San Antonio by 19 points in the area playoffs... And actually we dont make a ton of adjustments to the computer rankings in the pre-season predictions....we make a few on things we feel are egregious and obviously the collective group didnt feel this was an egregious error having San Benito over Judson and based on the data points of using the end rankings of the two foremost computer ranking systems and using the common opponent variable from 2022...I think we made the right call not over-riding the computer I don't care what you saw. As bad was Judson last year, and as good as San Benito was, Judson would have beat them by 14 points. Then its settled!
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Post by oldcatnewhornet on Jun 26, 2023 8:18:19 GMT -6
I don't care what you saw. As bad was Judson last year, and as good as San Benito was, Judson would have beat them by 14 points. Then its settled! Hmmmmm?
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Post by raidercatphenomsmellmyown on Jun 26, 2023 17:08:25 GMT -6
Mine showed up in the mail today. I enjoyed looking through it and will probably go back a read several times like I always do. When I start seeing the Dave Campbell’s mag I know football is right around the corner.
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Post by mattsteppdctf on Jun 26, 2023 19:02:15 GMT -6
I'm glad it came and I hope you enjoy!
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Post by sotex on Jun 26, 2023 19:13:19 GMT -6
Yes, SB beat Taft 38-19 in the 2nd round Taft also lost to Harlan, John Jay, and were donkey stomped by Brennan 13-54. You are also comparing common opponent scores when Judson played Westlake in week 2 and SB played them in the 2nd round. Judson was playing TERRIBLE football early in the year and I think you know that. Though I agree that these two teams were not lightyears apart last year, I also think Judson beats SB head to head late in the year by at least 2 scores. Do you think SB goes to Midland Legacy and puts up 60 on them and beats them by 10. NO WAY! Judson didnt go to Midland Legacy and put 60 up on them, they did that at home. I dont think San Benito puts up 60 on Midland Legacy becauase that's not really their brand of football, much more of a defensive oriented team....Midland Legacy was a weird team last year and that first half vs Judson was their weirdest half of the year, must have sleptwalk getting off the bus in San Antonio. I stand by my statement that Judson vs San Benito last year would be a competitive game, I know what I saw and I think it'd be a close game I agree it would not have been a blowout. You say you saw both teams play. How many games and who did they play? San Bentio's schedule didn't compare to Judson's and come playoff time, competition matters. I still say Judson by 14.
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Post by sinfan75 on Jun 26, 2023 20:02:11 GMT -6
Mine showed up in the mail today. I enjoyed looking through it and will probably go back a read several times like I always do. When I start seeing the Dave Campbell’s mag I know football is right around the corner. Got mine today as well.
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Post by mattsteppdctf on Jun 26, 2023 20:36:02 GMT -6
Judson didnt go to Midland Legacy and put 60 up on them, they did that at home. I dont think San Benito puts up 60 on Midland Legacy becauase that's not really their brand of football, much more of a defensive oriented team....Midland Legacy was a weird team last year and that first half vs Judson was their weirdest half of the year, must have sleptwalk getting off the bus in San Antonio. I stand by my statement that Judson vs San Benito last year would be a competitive game, I know what I saw and I think it'd be a close game I agree it would not have been a blowout. You say you saw both teams play. How many games and who did they play? San Bentio's schedule didn't compare to Judson's and come playoff time, competition matters. I still say Judson by 14. In person I watched Judson vs San Antonio Johnson and San Benito vs Harlingen....both were outstanding games against good opponents....Judson beat Johnson in OT and San Benito lost at Harlingen....watched I two Judson games online and one other San Benito game online...Judson's not very good up front any longer and thats where they usually had a massive advantage over teams from the RGV...thats not the case any longer
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Post by FB fan on Jun 26, 2023 20:43:02 GMT -6
Checking calpreps computer prediction for last year had Judson over SB 31-28.
I still think it would be more.
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Post by mattsteppdctf on Jun 26, 2023 20:51:12 GMT -6
Checking calpreps computer prediction for last year had Judson over SB 31-28. I still think it would be more. Thats now 3 computer projections that have it as a close game plus me seeing the two teams in person saying basically the same thing...if you took the names Judson and San Benito away from those teams and look at the data, the film and the results people would see the same thing...but that inherent bias of those silver helmets and the Judson logo and knowing its an RGV team has people hoodwinked
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Post by proscout on Jun 26, 2023 21:10:33 GMT -6
We really arguing about pre-season rankings??? FOOTBALL IS BACK BABY!
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Post by sotex on Jun 26, 2023 21:20:20 GMT -6
I agree it would not have been a blowout. You say you saw both teams play. How many games and who did they play? San Bentio's schedule didn't compare to Judson's and come playoff time, competition matters. I still say Judson by 14. In person I watched Judson vs San Antonio Johnson and San Benito vs Harlingen....both were outstanding games against good opponents....Judson beat Johnson in OT and San Benito lost at Harlingen....watched I two Judson games online and one other San Benito game online...Judson's not very good up front any longer and thats where they usually had a massive advantage over teams from the RGV...thats not the case any longer I'm not disagreeing with you. Judson isn't what they once were, but teams from the Valley don't face competition week end and out like Judson does. Yes, they lost to a good Harlingen team, but Judson took Steele into overtime. Both are rivalries, but Steele is head and shoulders better than any team from the valley. Checking calpreps computer prediction for last year had Judson over SB 31-28. I still think it would be more. I do as well, and calpreps is way more reliable than Campbell, Padilla, etc, especially later in the season.
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Post by mattsteppdctf on Jun 26, 2023 21:31:57 GMT -6
I actually feel like Calpreps is the least accurate between Padilla and PigskinPrep but I've never sat down and did a data dive....all computer polls have their blind spots (dont take injuries into account, only look at the final score not game flow etc)....but human polls have blind spots primarily from inherent biases as well....I definitely use the Padilla and Jerry as a supplement to my personal rankings during the season almost like a guardrail....If I'm way off from one or both then I usually take a second look to see if I've missed something
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Post by FB fan on Jun 26, 2023 23:27:33 GMT -6
I actually feel like Calpreps is the least accurate between Padilla and PigskinPrep but I've never sat down and did a data dive....all computer polls have their blind spots (dont take injuries into account, only look at the final score not game flow etc)....but human polls have blind spots primarily from inherent biases as well....I definitely use the Padilla and Jerry as a supplement to my personal rankings during the season almost like a guardrail....If I'm way off from one or both then I usually take a second look to see if I've missed something Calpreps warn their predictions aren't official until October. From that time on they claim 80% accuracy.
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Post by Clemensbuff on Jun 27, 2023 5:31:15 GMT -6
I actually feel like Calpreps is the least accurate between Padilla and PigskinPrep but I've never sat down and did a data dive....all computer polls have their blind spots (dont take injuries into account, only look at the final score not game flow etc)....but human polls have blind spots primarily from inherent biases as well....I definitely use the Padilla and Jerry as a supplement to my personal rankings during the season almost like a guardrail....If I'm way off from one or both then I usually take a second look to see if I've missed something I agree that all computer rankings have some flaws. I'd love to see exactly who's computer is the most accurate in picking the games. I suspect they all are pretty close percentage wise picking the winners/losers. Last, you keep saying that Judson is not the same team up front as they used to be but if memory serves me they've have had multiple kids sign with power 5 schools on both sides of the ball from their lines in the last 4-5 years including one that went pretty high in the draft from a&m. I think Judson still has a speed and size advantage over most teams they play and they certainly would have had it against SB last year as well.
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Post by mattsteppdctf on Jun 27, 2023 6:19:43 GMT -6
I actually feel like Calpreps is the least accurate between Padilla and PigskinPrep but I've never sat down and did a data dive....all computer polls have their blind spots (dont take injuries into account, only look at the final score not game flow etc)....but human polls have blind spots primarily from inherent biases as well....I definitely use the Padilla and Jerry as a supplement to my personal rankings during the season almost like a guardrail....If I'm way off from one or both then I usually take a second look to see if I've missed something Calpreps warn their predictions aren't official until October. From that time on they claim 80% accuracy. That's about what Padilla and Jerry are...give or take a % point or two either side...but that's for the entirety of the season..thats just on picking the winner I'd like to dig and see how close they are on the spreads
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