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Post by Tom on Nov 3, 2012 15:22:08 GMT -6
(NOTE: There are still a few games to be played tonight that will have a bearing on the playoff projections -- FW Southwest vs. Arlington Heights in 7-4A, Beaumont Central vs. LC-M in 20-4A, all of 21-4A, Houston Stratford vs. Tomball in 22-4A, SA Brackenridge vs. SA Lanier in 28-4A, Laredo Nixon vs. Laredo Martin in 31-4A. The actual brackets will be up later tonight; for now, I'm providing a breakdown on the remaining scenarios in the districts that have finished Week 9 play.)
Region I Breakdown
District 1-4A IN: EP Chapin (D1 #1), EP Burges (D2 #1), EP Andress (D1 #2), EP Bowie (D2 #2)
District 2-4A IN: EP Del Valle (D1 #1), EP Hanks (D1 #2), Clint Horizon (D2), Canutillo (D2) Horizon and Canutillo are currently tied at 5-2, with Horizon holding the tiebreaker. Basically, unless Horizon loses (to last-place Ysleta) and Canutillo wins (against first-place Del Valle), Horizon will claim the top seed in D2.
District 3-4A IN: Amarillo (D1 #1), Canyon Randall (D2 #1), Canyon (D2 #2), Amarillo Palo Duro (D1 #2)
District 4-4A IN: Wolfforth Frenship (D2 #1), Hereford (D2 #2), Lubbock Monterey (D1), Lubbock (D1) Monterey and Lubbock play in Week 10; the winner will be the top seed in D1.
District 5-4A IN: Denton Guyer (D1 #1), Wichita Falls Rider (D2 #1) Still alive: Azle (4-2), Byron Nelson (3-3), Lake Dallas (3-3) Azle plays Lake Dallas in Week 10, and an Azle win will clinch for both themselves and Nelson, regardless of what Nelson does. If Lake Dallas wins, Byron Nelson has to beat Denton (which they should) to force a three-way tie for third. It's not quite clear how that would work out, but Azle's current lead in victory margin (Azle +9, Nelson -2, Lake Dallas -7) gives them a pretty good cushion if they lose a close one. As far as divisions go, Nelson would be D1, Lake Dallas would be D2; Azle can go either way.
District 6-4A IN: Birdville (D1 #1), FW Boswell (D2 #1), Saginaw (D1 #2), FW Dunbar (D2 #2)
District 7-4A IN: Aledo (D1 #1), FW Southwest (D2 #1), Granbury (D1 #2) Still alive: FW Wyatt (3-3), FW Western Hills (2-4) It looks like tiebreakers are such that the winner of the Week 10 game between Wyatt and Western Hills will take the fourth playoff spot.
District 8-4A IN: Crowley (D1 #1), Cleburne (D1 #2), Waco (D2), Everman (D2) Waco and Everman will play in Week 10 for seeding in D2. Waco University could tie the loser with a win over Cleburne, but they've already lost to both, so they're out.
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Post by Tom on Nov 3, 2012 15:44:43 GMT -6
Region II Breakdown
District 9-4A IN: Prosper (D2), Frisco Centennial (D1), Frisco Still alive: Little Elm (3-3), Frisco Wakeland (3-3), The Colony (2-4) Little Elm's mission is simple: beat The Colony in Week 10, and they're in. Wakeland, which lost to Little Elm on Friday night, needs to win against Frisco Liberty and needs The Colony to beat Little Elm. Given that Wakeland is fairly unlikely to lose to Liberty, The Colony is basically only able to play spoiler to their rivals down FM 423, though they could possibly win a three-way tiebreaker if Wakeland manages to lose. As far as seeds and divisions go: Little Elm or Wakeland would be D2 #2, The Colony would be D1 #2. Frisco is the swing team among the three clinched teams; if they go D2, they play Prosper on Friday night for the seeds. If they're D1, they're currently tied with Centennial in the standings but lost to Centennial, so they would need Centennial to lose (unlikely; Centennial plays last-place Heritage) and then beat Prosper.
10-4A IN: Highland Park (D1 #1), Mesquite Poteet (D2), West Mesquite Still alive: Forney (3-3), Carrollton Smith (2-4) Forney and Carrollton Smith play each other in Week 10, and the winner will get the final playoff berth. If it's Forney, they're D2 and West Mesquite would go D1 (as the #2 seed.) If it's Smith, they're D1 and the Poteet/West Mesquite winner will be #1 in D2.
11-4A IN: Dallas South Oak Cliff, Dallas Carter (D2), Dallas Kimball (D1) Still alive: Seagoville (3-3), Dallas Adamson (2-4), North Dallas (2-4) Adamson really shot themselves in the foot with a loss to North Dallas (by an ugly margin, at that.) Now, Seagoville can clinch with a (admittedly unlikely) win against Carter. Should they lose, Adamson needs to win against last-place Pinkston; but, they probably also need Molina to beat North Dallas. North Dallas loses a two-way tie with Seagoville -- and, for all I know, loses a three-way as well -- but, to have a chance, they need to win, have Seagoville lose, and Adamson win. Fortunately for them, that's a reasonably likely scenario, and might give them their first playoff appearance since, get this, 1952. For divisions, South Oak Cliff will go D2 if Adamson gets the last playoff spot and D1 if it's North Dallas or Seagoville. In D2, they'll be the #1 seed; in D1, they'd need to beat Kimball in Week 10 to get the top seed.
12-4A IN: Dallas Lincoln (D2 #1), Dallas Adams (D1), Dallas Samuell (D1) Still alive: Dallas Hillcrest (4-2), Dallas Wilson (3-3) Hillcrest and Wilson play in Week 10 in what's likely a win-and-in scenario for both; technically, if Wilson wins, there could be a three-way tie with Samuell, but that's unlikely to happen (Samuell plays last-place Jefferson.) Either one would be the #2 seed in D2. For the D1 seeds, Samuell will be the #1 seed if they beat Jefferson and Adams loses to Lincoln (likely); otherwise, Adams is the #1 seed.
13-4A IN: Lucas Lovejoy (D2), Sherman (D1 #1), Wylie East (D2), Wylie (D1 #2) Lovejoy and Wylie East will play in Week 10 to decide the seeds in D2. Wylie can still be tied by either McKinney North or Denison, but they've already beaten both, and in any case should beat Royse City in Week 10.
14-4A IN: Sulphur Springs (D2 #1), Mount Pleasant (D1 #1), Hallsville (D2 #2), Texas High (D1 #2)
15-4A IN: Ennis (D2), Lancaster, Red Oak (D1) Still alive: Waxahachie (3-3), Mansfield Summit (3-3), Arlington Seguin (2-4) In Week 10, all three of the teams alive for the last playoff spot -- Waxahachie (at Ennis), Mansfield Summit (vs. Lancaster), and Arlington Seguin (at Red Oak) -- should be underdogs. Waxahachie is in with a win; alternatively, they can back into a playoff spot if all three lose. Summit needs a win and a Waxahachie loss. Seguin may already be out depending on tiebreakers, but in any case needs to win and have Waxahachie and Summit both lose to have a chance. Should Seguin go, Lancaster would be the D1 #1 seed (in that scenario, they finish ahead of Red Oak in the standings.) Waxahachie or Summit would be D1 and win a date with John Tyler; for D2 seeding, Lancaster holds the tiebreaker with Ennis, though Ennis can be #1 if they win and Lancaster loses.
District 16-4A IN: Whitehouse (D2 #1), John Tyler (D1 #1), Jacksonville (D2 #2), Corsicana (D1 #2)
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Post by Tom on Nov 3, 2012 15:58:30 GMT -6
Region III Breakdown
District 17-4A IN: Georgetown (D1 #1), Pflugerville Connally (D1 #2), Manor (D2 #1), Elgin (D2 #2)
District 18-4A IN: Brenham (D2 #1), Montgomery (D1 #1), Huntsville Still alive: Magnolia West (4-3), Waller (3-4) Magnolia West and Waller play in Week 10 for the final playoff spot. Magnolia West would be D1; Waller would be D2.
District 19-4A IN: Dayton (D1), Humble Summer Creek (D1), Crosby (D2 #1), Barbers Hill (D2 #2) Dayton and Summer Creek, both undefeated, play in Week 10 for the district championship and the D1 #1 seed.
District 20-4A IN: Nederland (D1 #1), Vidor, Livingston (D2) Still alive: Little Cypress-Mauriceville (3-3), Beaumont Central (3-3), Beaumont Ozen (2-4) Central's surprise win over LC-M tonight just gave Ozen new life; an LC-M win would have put them in the playoffs. Instead, now LC-M goes into Week 10 needing a win over Vidor, which they're probably not going to get. Central either needs a win or an Ozen loss -- but neither is all that likely (Central plays first-place Nederland; Ozen plays winless Lumberton.) From best I can tell, Ozen would win a three-way tiebreaker with Central and LC-M, and that looks like the most likely scenario.
District 21-4A IN: Houston North Forest, Houston Reagan (D1), Houston Sharpstown (D2) Still alive: Houston Wheatley (4-3), Houston Milby (4-3), Houston Waltrip (3-4) Milby's path to the playoffs is straight forward: beat Waltrip, and they're in. If Waltrip wins, this will probably end in a three-way tie (Wheatley, playing unbeaten North Forest, is unlikely to win.) Currently, the margins are Milby (+6), Wheatley (+4), Waltrip (-10), so Waltrip will probably have to win by a bunch -- but then, depending on the tiebreaker rules, it might just narrow it down to a two-way tie with Wheatley (which they lose.) Note that North Forest goes D1 if Wheatley is the fourth playoff team.
District 22-4A IN: Fort Bend Marshall (D2 #1), Houston Stratford (D1 #1), Tomball (D1 #2), Fort Bend Ridge Point (D2 #2)
District 23-4A IN: Rosenberg Terry (D2 #1), Angleton (D1), Richmond Foster (D1), Lamar Consolidated (D2 #2) Angleton and Foster are currently tied in the standings, with Angleton holding the tiebreaker; if Angleton beats Terry or Foster loses to Lamar, Angleton will claim the #1 seed in D1.
District 24-4A IN: Pearland Dawson (D1 #1), Texas City (D2 #1), Friendswood (D1 #2) Still alive: Baytown Goose Creek (3-3), Galena Park (3-3) After Goose Creek's win over Galena Park on Friday night, Galena Park needs a win and a Goose Creek loss in Week 10 to get in. Easy enough? Well, in Week 10, Goose Creek plays winless Santa Fe, while Galena Park plays undefeated (and #1 in the state according to some) Dawson, so... shall we go ahead and pencil in Goose Creek here?
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Post by Tom on Nov 3, 2012 16:29:41 GMT -6
Region IV Breakdown
District 25-4A IN: Cedar Park, Leander (D1) Still alive: CP Vista Ridge (3-2), Austin Vandegrift (3-3), Leander Rouse (2-3) Vandegrift gets to sit on the sidelines in Week 10 and await the result of the Vista Ridge/Rouse game; if Vista Ridge wins, they're in (as is VR), while a Rouse win would force a three-way tie. Currently on points, VR is +7, Vandegrift is -1, and Rouse is -6, so depending on how 25-4A works out its ties, Rouse might still be able to get in depending on their result against VR (a close win probably won't cut it, though.) In terms of divisions, Rouse would be D1 and push Cedar Park into D2, while Vista Ridge and Vandegrift would both be D2 (if both go, VR is the #1 seed, while CP would be the #1 seed in D1.)
District 26-4A IN: Austin McCallum (D1 #1), Austin LBJ (D1 #2), Austin Travis (D2 #1), Austin Crockett (D2 #2)
District 27-4A IN: Alamo Heights, Hays Consolidated (D1), Kerrville Tivy (D2) Still alive: Seguin (3-3), Lockhart (3-3), Boerne Champion (2-4) Seguin will be in with a win over Boerne Champion, and, depending on tiebreakers, might be able to weather a close loss assuming Lockhart loses (they play Kerrville Tivy.) Champion likely just needs a win and a Lockhart loss, though again, depending on how tiebreakers work they might need to beat Seguin by a comfortable margin. Lockhart isn't likely to win a three-way tie given their big loss to Seguin (and obviously isn't going to win a two-way tie with Seguin), so they probably need to beat Tivy and have Champion beat Seguin. Alamo Heights is D1 if Lockhart or Champion is the fourth team, and playing Hays in Week 10 for seeding; if Seguin is the fourth team, AH is the #1 seed in D2. Tivy is the #1 seed if AH goes D1.
District 28-4A IN: SA Brennan, SA Jefferson (D2), SA Brackenridge (D1) Still alive: SA Edison (2-3), SA Highlands (2-3) Heading into Week 10, things look fairly simple in 28-4A. Edison is in with a win (against Jefferson) and a Highlands loss (to Brackenridge.) Otherwise, thanks to Highlands' win over Edison, Highlands is in in other scenarios. Highlands would be D1, and can be the #1 seed with a win over Brackenridge (in that scenario, Brennan is the D2 #1 seed.) Edison, if they get in, would be the D2 #2 seed behind Jefferson.
District 29-4A IN: Floresville (D2), Medina Valley (D2) Still alive: SA Harlandale (4-2), SA Southside (3-3), Uvalde (3-3), SA McCollum (2-4) Uhhh... li'l help here? Okay, starting with the obvious: Harlandale just needs to beat McCollum, and they're in with the #1 seed in D1; that would also eliminate McCollum. But, even if they lose that, they just need either Southside (at Floresville) or Uvalde (vs. Medina Valley) to lose, and might even be okay in the unlikely event that both win. Either Uvalde or Southside can get in by winning and having the other lose, and Uvalde is probably in fine shape just by beating Medina Valley since they beat Southside. McCollum (vs. Harlandale) is out if they lose, or if either Uvalde or Southside wins. Kennedy is a game back of both Uvalde and Southside, but I can't seem to find a scenario where they would make the playoffs (I could, of course, be wrong about this.) But if both Southside and Uvalde lose? Well, first of all, since they're playing the two teams tied for first that's fairly likely. If Kennedy wins and McCollum loses, Uvalde is in -- they beat both Southside and Kennedy. If McCollum wins and Kennedy loses (unlikely -- Kennedy plays winless Memorial), it looks like either McCollum or Southside would be in (McCollum won big over Uvalde, but Southside beat McCollum.) If both win, it looks like Uvalde is in -- Uvalde and Kennedy each went 2-1 against the other three, McCollum and Southside went 1-2, and Uvalde beat Kennedy. And if both Kennedy and McCollum lose, Uvalde is in thanks to their win over Southside. All of this is to say, Harlandale is probably in. Uvalde is in in most scenarios, except where they lose and Southside wins, and excepting the (rather unlikely) scenario where both lose, Kennedy loses and McCollum wins. Southside basically needs to beat Floresville, because they lose most tiebreakers. McCollum needs to win, and needs a lot of help. In terms of seeding? Harlandale is the D1 #1 seed unless they finish in a tie with Southside, in which case Southside is #1 (they beat Harlandale.) For D2, Medina Valley is the #1 seed unless they lose and Floresville wins.
District 30-4A (Special thanks to CatFan4Ever for providing the tiebreaker rules here.) IN: Port Lavaca Calhoun (D2 #1), CC Calallen (D2 #2), Gregory-Portland (D1) Still alive: Victoria East (2-3), Victoria West (2-3) Strangely, it might be a game between two teams that have already been eliminated that determines the fourth playoff spot. Both Victorias are likely to lose this week (East at Calallen, West at G-P), but Tuloso-Midway can still force a three-way tie (which they lose) with a win over Beeville. So, assuming both Victorias lose, a T-M win would put West in the playoffs; a loss would put East in. Now, obviously, either Victoria school can get in with a win and a loss by the other (and West can actually get the #1 seed in D1.) Wins by both would put East in, unless West were to beat G-P by at least 11 points.
31-4A IN: CC Flour Bluff, CC Ray (D1), Alice (D2) Still alive: Laredo Nixon (3-3), CC Miller (2-4) Both Nixon and Miller are heavy underdogs in Week 10 (against Flour Bluff and Ray, respectively), so Nixon will probably be able to hold on here; but Miller holds the tiebreaker should they pull an upset. Note that Miller making the playoffs would push FB to D1.
32-4A IN: Mission (D1 #1), Mercedes (D2), Edcouch-Elsa (D2), Mission Veterans (D1 #2) E-E is the D2 #1 seed unless they lose to Rio Grande City and Mercedes beats Mission.
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Post by Tom on Nov 3, 2012 22:12:15 GMT -6
FINAL Playoff Projections
Teams that have clinched seeding are in bold. Teams that have clinched a playoff berth but not seeding are in italics.
Division I
Region I El Paso Chapin vs. El Paso Hanks Amarillo vs. Lubbock Denton Guyer vs. Saginaw Aledo vs. Cleburne El Paso Del Valle vs. El Paso Andress Lubbock Monterey vs. Amarillo Palo Duro Birdville vs. Byron Nelson Crowley vs. Granbury
Region II Frisco Centennial vs. West Mesquite Dallas South Oak Cliff vs. Dallas Adams Sherman vs. Texas High Red Oak vs. Corsicana Highland Park vs. Frisco Dallas Samuell vs. Dallas Kimball Mount Pleasant vs. Wylie John Tyler vs. Waxahachie
Region III Georgetown vs. Magnolia West Dayton vs. Vidor Houston Reagan vs. Tomball Angleton vs. Friendswood Montgomery vs. Pflugerville Connally Nederland vs. Humble Summer Creek Houston Stratford vs. Houston Milby Pearland Dawson vs. Richmond Foster
Region IV Cedar Park vs. Austin LBJ Hays Consolidated vs. SA Highlands SA Harlandale vs. Victoria West CC Ray vs. Mission Veterans Austin McCallum vs. Leander SA Brackenridge vs. Seguin Gregory-Portland vs. Uvalde Mission vs. Laredo Nixon
Division II
Region I El Paso Burges vs. Canutillo Canyon Randall vs. Hereford Wichita Falls Rider vs. FW Dunbar FW Southwest vs. Everman Clint Horizon vs. El Paso Bowie Wolfforth Frenship vs. Canyon FW Boswell vs. Azle Waco vs. FW Wyatt
Region II Prosper vs. Forney Dallas Carter vs. Dallas Wilson Lucas Lovejoy vs. Hallsville Lancaster vs. Jacksonville Mesquite Poteet vs. Little Elm Dallas Lincoln vs. North Dallas Sulphur Springs vs. Wylie East Whitehouse vs. Ennis
Region III Manor vs. Huntsville Crosby vs. Beaumont Ozen Houston North Forest vs. Fort Bend Ridge Point Rosenberg Terry vs. Baytown Goose Creek Brenham vs. Elgin Livingston vs. Barbers Hill Fort Bend Marshall vs. Houston Sharpstown Texas City vs. Lamar Consolidated
Region IV CP Vista Ridge vs. Austin Crockett Alamo Heights vs. SA Jefferson Medina Valley vs. CC Calallen CC Flour Bluff vs. Mercedes Austin Travis vs. Austin Vandegrift SA Brennan vs. Kerrville Tivy Port Lavaca Calhoun vs. Floresville Edcouch-Elsa vs. Alice
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Post by danrut on Nov 5, 2012 12:18:29 GMT -6
Here's a bracket for 4a Reg IV Div II. First name on each line is the one I believe will be there and then the others could potentially be there. The lines with 1 name is in that spot. I used Tom's breakdown of the districts, Thanks Tom, and added to it a bit.
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Post by Laredo_Sports on Nov 5, 2012 12:38:38 GMT -6
Leander and Nixon wow, imagine that! lmao
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Post by OCCNH on Nov 5, 2012 12:46:45 GMT -6
Leander and Nixon wow, imagine that! lmao Get ready for some Leander Light come Friday.
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Post by Clemensbuff on Nov 5, 2012 13:10:07 GMT -6
FINAL Playoff Projections Teams that have clinched seeding are in bold. Teams that have clinched a playoff berth but not seeding are in italics.Division I Region IV Cedar Park vs. Austin LBJHays Consolidated vs. SA Highlands SA Harlandale vs. Victoria West CC Ray vs. Mission VeteransAustin McCallum vs. LeanderSA Brackenridge vs. Seguin Gregory-Portland vs. Uvalde Mission vs. Laredo Nixon WOW, just wow! I don't see anybody on this bracket besides maybe GP capable of beating either Leander or CP. I'm not sure GP has the 'firepower' to beat either of these two teams though as both have very salty defenses. I'd say there is a very big chance it will be Leander vs CP for the R4 D1 title. I hope I'm wrong and GP can get it done.
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Post by Tom on Nov 5, 2012 13:45:17 GMT -6
FINAL Playoff Projections Teams that have clinched seeding are in bold. Teams that have clinched a playoff berth but not seeding are in italics.Division I Region IV Cedar Park vs. Austin LBJHays Consolidated vs. SA Highlands SA Harlandale vs. Victoria West CC Ray vs. Mission VeteransAustin McCallum vs. LeanderSA Brackenridge vs. Seguin Gregory-Portland vs. Uvalde Mission vs. Laredo Nixon WOW, just wow! I don't see anybody on this bracket besides maybe GP capable of beating either Leander or CP. I'm not sure GP has the 'firepower' to beat either of these two teams though as both have very salty defenses. I'd say there is a very big chance it will be Leander vs CP for the R4 D1 title. I hope I'm wrong and GP can get it done. Well, there are still a couple of things that could change. Alamo Heights can still go D1 (if Seguin misses) as can Brennan (if Edison gets in.) Either of those, I think, could make the road tougher. On the other hand, R4D2 looks pretty wide open. In fact, D2 as a whole looks wide open now, between Aledo and CP now going D1 and JT Barrett's ACL.
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Post by SCBuffaloes16 on Nov 6, 2012 6:30:53 GMT -6
WOW, just wow! I don't see anybody on this bracket besides maybe GP capable of beating either Leander or CP. I'm not sure GP has the 'firepower' to beat either of these two teams though as both have very salty defenses. I'd say there is a very big chance it will be Leander vs CP for the R4 D1 title. I hope I'm wrong and GP can get it done. Well, there are still a couple of things that could change. Alamo Heights can still go D1 (if Seguin misses) as can Brennan (if Edison gets in.) Either of those, I think, could make the road tougher. On the other hand, R4D2 looks pretty wide open. In fact, D2 as a whole looks wide open now, between Aledo and CP now going D1 and JT Barrett's ACL. What happened to Barretts ACL to make it that serious? That sucks for Rider.
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Post by Tom on Nov 6, 2012 7:19:16 GMT -6
Well, there are still a couple of things that could change. Alamo Heights can still go D1 (if Seguin misses) as can Brennan (if Edison gets in.) Either of those, I think, could make the road tougher. On the other hand, R4D2 looks pretty wide open. In fact, D2 as a whole looks wide open now, between Aledo and CP now going D1 and JT Barrett's ACL. What happened to Barretts ACL to make it that serious? That sucks for Rider. Torn ACL in the Brewer game (Week 5.) Out for the season. Supposedly their backup QB is pretty good but he had a pulled hamstring for the Guyer game, he's expected back though. They looked like a title contender everywhere except QB.
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Post by DD Booger on Nov 6, 2012 11:15:41 GMT -6
D2 in 4a is VERY wide open. Would love to have had last years team in this bracket. Oh well. lol PLC and FB have a real good shot at this out of that area. Unless our offense improves dramatically, I don't see this year as Calallen's chance.
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Post by Clemensbuff on Nov 6, 2012 11:47:39 GMT -6
D2 in 4a is VERY wide open. Would love to have had last years team in this bracket. Oh well. lol PLC and FB have a real good shot at this out of that area. Unless our offense improves dramatically, I don't see this year as Calallen's chance. Oh man Boog.......no doubt on last year's Cal team in this D2 bracket. It would have been awesome! I also agree on PLC and FB as well. On your last statement..........I WILL TAKE GREAT DEFENSE OVER GREAT OFFENSE ANY DAY IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!!!!
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Post by DD Booger on Nov 6, 2012 12:07:04 GMT -6
On your last statement..........I WILL TAKE GREAT DEFENSE OVER GREAT OFFENSE ANY DAY IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!!!! I agree, it just seems once we hit some stiff comp on defense, the offense falls into a malaise and can't move the ball. Very frustrating to go from that high octane style last year to this. The stable is a little empty right now, I think next year we'll see drastic improvement on that side of the ball and we return a lot of talent from D as well.
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