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Post by Tom on Oct 28, 2012 15:47:13 GMT -6
No listing of changes this week, but I'm working on a breakdown of each district (which should be up later tonight.) This week, teams that have (to the best of my knowledge) clinched a playoff berth are indicated in bold.
Division I
Region I EP Chapin vs. EP Hanks Amarillo vs. Lubbock Denton Guyer vs. Saginaw Aledo vs. Cleburne EP Del Valle vs. EP Andress Lubbock Monterey vs. Amarillo Palo Duro Birdville vs. Byron Nelson Crowley vs. Granbury
Region II Frisco Centennial vs. West Mesquite Dallas Kimball vs. Dallas Samuell Sherman vs. Texas High Red Oak vs. Corsicana Highland Park vs. Frisco Dallas Adams vs. Dallas Adamson Mount Pleasant vs. Wylie John Tyler vs. Waxahachie
Region III Georgetown vs. Magnolia West Dayton vs. Vidor Houston Reagan vs. Tomball Angleton vs. Friendswood Montgomery vs. Pflugerville Connally Nederland vs. Humble Summer Creek Houston Stratford vs. Houston Milby Pearland Dawson vs. Richmond Foster
Region IV Leander vs. Austin LBJ Hays Consolidated vs. SA Brackenridge SA Harlandale vs. Gregory-Portland CC Ray vs. Mission Veterans Austin McCallum vs. Leander Rouse SA Brennan vs. Seguin CC Calallen vs. Uvalde Mission vs. Laredo Nixon
Division II
Region I EP Burges vs. Canutillo Canyon Randall vs. Hereford WF Rider vs. FW Dunbar FW Southwest vs. Waco Clint Horizon vs. EP Bowie Wolfforth Frenship vs. Canyon FW Boswell vs. Azle Everman vs. FW Wyatt
Region II Prosper vs. Forney Dallas South Oak Cliff vs. Dallas Wilson Lucas Lovejoy vs. Hallsville Lancaster vs. Jacksonville Mesquite Poteet vs. Frisco Wakeland Dallas Lincoln vs. Dallas Carter Sulphur Springs vs. Wylie East Whitehouse vs. Ennis
Region III Manor vs. Huntsville Crosby vs. LC-Mauriceville Houston North Forest vs. FB Ridge Point Rosenberg Terry vs. Galena Park Brenham vs. Elgin Livingston vs. Barbers Hill FB Marshall vs. Houston Sharpstown Texas City vs. Lamar Consolidated
Region IV Cedar Park vs. Austin Crockett Alamo Heights vs. SA Jefferson Medina Valley vs. CC Tuloso-Midway CC Flour Bluff vs. Roma* Austin Travis vs. CP Vista Ridge SA Edison vs. Kerrville Tivy Port Lavaca Calhoun vs. Floresville Mercedes* vs. Alice
*These projections may be affected by the UIL's ruling on Edcouch-Elsa's appeal. If the appeal is granted, Edcouch-Elsa takes the top seed in Division II, Mercedes becomes the #2 seed, and Roma is out.
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Post by Tom on Oct 28, 2012 16:52:51 GMT -6
Region I Breakdown
Teams that have clinched a playoff berth are indicated in bold. Teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention are indicated in italics. Note that teams are not considered to have clinched unless literally no scenario exists in which they miss the playoffs, nor are they eliminated unless literally no scenario exists in which they make the playoffs, though in some cases either one may be extremely unlikely. (I may be wrong on some of these; these are to the best of my knowledge. Tiebreakers are assumed to be head-to-head followed by some sort of overall victory margin, usually with a cap between 13 and 18 points. If you know any district tiebreakers that I'm missing, let me know.)
1-4A EP Chapin (6-0, 8-1) (1) EP Burges (5-1, 7-2) (6) EP Bowie (3-2, 5-3) (8) EP Andress (3-2, 4-4) (2) El Paso (2-3, 3-5) (7) EP Austin (1-4, 3-5) (5) EP Jefferson (1-4, 2-6) (3) EP Irvin (0-5, 1-7) (4)
Week 9 games: El Paso at Andress, Jefferson at Austin, Burges at Bowie, Irvin at Chapin
Andress can clinch a bid simply by beating El Paso; they're favored in that one. But things could get dicey if they lose. They'll be favored to win their Week 10 game against Jefferson, but Bowie and El Paso could win to force a three-way tie (as far as I know, 1-4A still uses a coin flip to settle three-way ties.) But if Andress wins, Bowie can clinch either by beating Burges or if Austin beats Jefferson; Bowie has already beaten both El Paso and Austin.
2-4A EP Del Valle (7-0, 7-2) (3) EP Hanks (5-1, 6-2) (1) Clint Horizon (4-2, 6-2) (6) Canutillo (4-2, 5-3) (4) EP Parkland (3-3, 4-4) (8) EP Eastlake (2-4, 3-5) (2) EP Riverside (2-4, 2-6) (7) San Elizario (1-6, 2-7) (9) EP Ysleta (0-6, 1-7) (5)
Week 9 games: Ysleta at Canutillo, Eastlake at Horizon, Hanks at Parkland, San Elizario at Riverside
This one is very close to being settled: Canutillo, Horizon, and Hanks can all clinch just by winning, which all are favored to do. Parkland and Eastlake are both depending on last-place Ysleta to beat somebody.
3-4A Amarillo (3-0, 6-2) (1) Canyon Randall (2-1, 7-1) (4) Canyon (2-1, 7-1) (5) Amarillo Palo Duro (1-2, 5-3) (3) Dumas (1-2, 4-4) (6) Amarillo Caprock (0-3, 3-5) (2)
Week 9 games: Amarillo at Canyon, Palo Duro at Caprock, Randall at Dumas
This district is settled if Palo Duro beats Caprock and Randall beats Dumas. Dumas would still be able to tie for fourth, but would lose any relevant tiebreaker. And, even if Palo Duro loses, they have a nice cushion in a tiebreaker between their 17-point win over Dumas and Caprock's 18-point loss to Dumas.
4-4A Wolfforth Frenship (3-0, 7-1) (3) Lubbock (2-1, 3-5) (2) Hereford (2-1, 2-6) (6) Lubbock Monterey (1-2, 5-3) (1) Plainview (1-2, 3-5) (4) San Angelo Lake View (0-3, 1-7) (5)
Week 9 games: Plainview at Hereford, Lubbock at Frenship, Lake View at Monterey
Like 3-4A, this one could be settled this week if Monterey and Hereford win. That would leave Plainview able to tie but unable to win any tiebreakers to get in. It's not really likely that Monterey will lose to a frankly bad Lake View team, but if they do, they have a nice cushion on victory margin.
5-4A Denton Guyer (5-0, 6-2) (1) Wichita Falls Rider (4-1, 6-2) (6) Byron Nelson (3-2, 6-2) (2) Azle (3-2, 6-2) (4) Brewer (2-3, 5-3) (5) Lake Dallas (2-3, 4-4) (8) Denton (1-4, 3-5) (3) Wichita Falls (0-5, 2-6) (7)
Week 9 games: Azle at Nelson, Denton at Rider, Wichita Falls at Guyer, Brewer at Lake Dallas
Suffice to say, Rider will probably eliminate Denton this week. Nelson is in good shape, as they can get in with a win over Azle this week or, failing that, they'll likely get in with a win over Denton in Week 10. Brewer, on the other hand, will need a lot of help -- almost all of the scenarios in which they make the playoffs involve them beating Denton Guyer in Week 10. The only other possible way is to beat Lake Dallas and then hope for both Nelson and Lake Dallas to beat Azle, and they might sneak in on the tiebreaker. In any case, they're out if they lose this week. Azle is in with a win and a Lake Dallas loss, which would also eliminate Lake Dallas -- otherwise, those two are probably playing for the final playoff spot in Week 10.
6-4A Birdville (7-0, 9-0) (2) Saginaw (5-1, 7-1) (1) FW Boswell (5-1, 6-2) (3) FW Dunbar (4-2, 4-4) (9) FW Eastern Hills (3-3, 3-5) (5) FW Carter-Riverside (2-4, 2-6) (7) FW Poly (1-5, 1-7) (8) Saginaw Chisholm Trail (1-5, 1-7) (6) FW North Side (0-7, 0-9) (4)
Week 9 games: Chisholm Trail at Poly, Eastern Hills at Dunbar, North Side at Carter-Riverside, Saginaw at Boswell
Saginaw's probably in; they beat Eastern Hills by 36, so it's hard to see how they'd miss the playoffs in a three-way tie with Dunbar and Eastern Hills (they play Dunbar in Week 10.) Anyway, a Dunbar win this week would make things academic; Saginaw can clinch on their own by beating Boswell (who's already beaten both Dunbar and Eastern Hills.) Should Eastern Hills win, Carter-Riverside has a fighting chance if they can get the layup against winless North Side and then beat EH in Week 10 -- though they have to overcome a 14-point loss to Dunbar in that tiebreaker.
7-4A Aledo (5-0, 7-1) (5) FW Southwest (4-1, 6-2) (6) Granbury (4-1, 6-2) (1) FW South Hills (2-3, 4-4) (4) FW Wyatt (2-3, 4-4) (8) FW Arlington Heights (2-3, 2-6) (3) FW Western Hills (1-4, 2-6) (7) FW Trimble Tech (0-5, 1-7) (2)
Week 9 games: Aledo at Granbury, South Hills at Western Hills, Arlington Heights at Southwest, Trimble Tech at Wyatt
What you need to know: Wyatt owns tiebreaker wins over both Arlington Heights and South Hills, both of whom still have to play Southwest (Arlington Heights has to play Granbury as well.) So, if Wyatt wins this week, either South Hills or Arlington Heights is eliminated with a loss. Western Hills can stay alive with a win and then will have a chance to beat Wyatt for the last playoff spot in Week 10.
8-4A Crowley (5-0, 7-1) (1) Cleburne (4-1, 5-3) (2) Everman (4-1, 5-3) (8) Waco University (3-2, 5-3) (6) Waco (3-2, 5-3) (4) Burleson Centennial (1-4, 2-6) (3) Joshua (0-5, 2-6) (7) Burleson (0-5, 0-8) (5)
Week 9 games: Joshua at Burleson, Centennial at Waco, Everman at Cleburne, University at Crowley
Centennial is hanging on by a thread; they're out with a loss or a University win (and, I'm not even sure they can get in in a three-way tie.) But everybody else can get in on their own. The Cleburne-Everman winner is definitely in, and University can do themselves a huge favor with a win. A loss, though, could eliminate them if Waco and Cleburne win, as they've already lost to both Waco and Everman. If things aren't settled this week, University plays Cleburne and Waco plays Everman in Week 10, and there still might be two playoff spots on the line in those games.
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Post by Tom on Oct 28, 2012 18:09:13 GMT -6
Region II Breakdown
9-4A Prosper (4-1, 7-1) (8) Frisco Centennial (4-1, 7-1) (2) Frisco (4-1, 5-3) (4) Frisco Wakeland (3-2, 6-2) (5) The Colony (2-3, 4-4) (1) Little Elm (2-3, 3-5) (6) Frisco Liberty (1-4, 3-5) (3) Frisco Heritage (0-5, 1-7) (7)
Week 9 games: Heritage at Frisco, The Colony at Centennial, Prosper at Liberty, Wakeland at Little Elm
Centennial and Wakeland have a chance to end things this week; wins by both would set the playoff field. And both of them have a layup in Week 10, so The Colony and Little Elm are really facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs. Little Elm might have a slightly easier time of it; should they beat Wakeland and The Colony, they could finish in a two-way tie with Wakeland and win that tiebreaker, while the best The Colony can probably hope for is a three-way tie with Wakeland and Centennial.
10-4A Highland Park (5-0, 7-1) (3) Mesquite Poteet (4-1, 7-1) (5) West Mesquite (4-1, 6-2) (4) Forney (3-2, 4-4) (6) Carrollton Smith (2-3, 4-4) (1) Carrollton Creekview (1-4, 3-5) (2) North Forney (1-4, 2-6) (8) Terrell (0-5, 0-8) (7)
Week 9 games: Terrell at Creekview, Smith at Highland Park, West Mesquite at Forney, North Forney at Poteet
I don't think either of the Mesquite schools can miss the playoffs, but I could be wrong. If Forney beats West Mesquite and Smith loses to Highland Park, Forney clinches this week; otherwise, the last playoff spot will come down to Forney vs. Smith in Week 10. Either North Forney or Creekview could still force a three-way tie, but neither team would win the tiebreaker.
11-4A Dallas SOC (5-0, 8-0) (4) Dallas Carter (4-1, 6-2) (6) Dallas Kimball (4-1, 6-2) (3) Seagoville (3-2, 4-4) (7) Dallas Adamson (2-3, 5-3) (2) North Dallas (1-4, 3-5) (5) Dallas Molina (1-4, 2-6) (1) Dallas Pinkston (0-5, 2-6) (8)
Week 9 games: North Dallas at Adamson, Pinkston at Carter, Seagoville at Kimball, South Oak Cliff at Molina
Carter and Kimball should both win this week and clinch the second and third playoff spots (both can also clinch with an Adamson loss.) Despite trailing them in the standings, Adamson actually has a better shot at making the playoffs than Seagoville. Adamson should be favored in their two remaining games (North Dallas, Pinkston), while Seagoville will be an underdog in their last two (Kimball, Carter), and Adamson has already beaten Seagoville. North Dallas's hopes are slim, and they'll be done if they lose to Adamson this week.
12-4A Dallas Lincoln (5-0, 7-1) (8) Dallas Adams (5-0, 6-2) (2) Dallas Hillcrest (3-2, 4-4) (7) Dallas Samuell (3-2, 4-4) (1) Dallas Wilson (2-3, 3-5) (3) Dallas Spruce (1-4, 1-7) (6) Dallas Conrad (1-4, 1-7) (5) Dallas Jefferson (0-5, 1-7) (4)
Week 9 games: Samuell at Adams, Conrad at Hillcrest, Wilson at Jefferson, Lincoln at Spruce
Samuell, holding a victory margin advantage in a three-way tie with Hillcrest and Wilson, probably just needs to win the layup against Jefferson in Week 10 to get in the playoffs, although beating Adams certainly wouldn't hurt. Hillcrest plays Wilson in Week 10, and if Hillcrest wins, it's academic. But a Wilson win would probably force a three-way tie, and having already lost to Samuell by 12, they would likely need to beat Hillcrest by a decent margin (Hillcrest beat Samuell by 4.)
13-4A Lucas Lovejoy (5-0, 8-0) (8) Sherman (4-1, 6-2) (3) Wylie East (4-1, 6-2) (4) Wylie (3-2, 3-5) (2) McKinney North (2-3, 2-6) (1) Royse City (1-4, 1-7) (6) Denison (1-4, 1-7) (5) Greenville (0-5, 0-8) (7)
Week 9 games: Greenville at Denison, Lovejoy at Royse City, McKinney North at Wylie East, Wylie at Sherman
Royse City is one of those teams that's technically still alive, but really isn't -- basically, they need to not only beat Lovejoy and Wylie, but also have a whole bunch of other things happen that probably aren't going to. In any case, Wylie East clinches with a win this week, and if that happens (and Lovejoy wins the layup against Royse City), Wylie can clinch this week even if they lose to Sherman.
14-4A Sulphur Springs (3-0, 6-2) (6) Hallsville (2-1, 6-2) (4) Mount Pleasant (2-1, 6-2) (2) Texas High (1-2, 2-5) (1) Marshall (1-2, 1-7) (3) Longview Pine Tree (0-3, 2-5) (5)
Week 9 games: Hallsville at Mount Pleasant, Pine Tree at Sulphur Springs, Marshall at Texas High
Assuming Sulphur Springs takes care of Pine Tree (which would eliminate Pine Tree), Texas High can eliminate Marshall with a win. If Marshall wins, the playoffs are set here if Hallsville also wins; in any case, the winner between Hallsville and Mount Pleasant will lock up a playoff spot.
15-4A Ennis (5-0, 8-0) (8) Lancaster (4-1, 7-1) (5) Red Oak (4-1, 5-3) (4) Waxahachie (3-2, 5-3) (3) Mansfield Summit (2-3, 2-6) (1) Mansfield Legacy (1-4, 3-5) (2) Arlington Seguin (1-4, 2-6) (6) Mansfield Lake Ridge (0-5, 0-8) (7)
Week 9 games: Lake Ridge at Seguin, Ennis at Lancaster, Summit at Legacy, Red Oak at Waxahachie
Basically, Summit, Legacy, and Seguin are all hoping that Waxahachie loses their remaining games (which could happen; they still have to play Red Oak and Ennis.) Seguin is hoping for a straight tie with Waxahachie, or a three-way tie with Waxahachie and Summit; meanwhile, Legacy would win a three-way tie with Seguin and Waxahachie. Summit has the advantage that they're not eliminated if Waxahachie wins one of their last two; but in that case, they would need to beat Lancaster in Week 10. There's a weird possible scenario where Red Oak, Lancaster, Waxahachie, and Summit could all finish 4-3, and in that situation, Lancaster would actually be the team out. In any case, there's still a lot to be decided here, though a Waxahachie win and a Summit loss in Week 9 would close the book.
16-4A Whitehouse (3-0, 8-0) (4) John Tyler (3-0, 7-1) (1) Corsicana (2-1, 3-5) (3) Jacksonville (1-2, 3-5) (5) Lindale (0-3, 1-7) (6) Nacogdoches (0-3, 0-8) (2)
Week 9 games: Corsicana at Whitehouse, Lindale at Jacksonville, John Tyler at Nacogdoches
Jacksonville beating Lindale would eliminate both Lindale and Nacogdoches (even in the unlikely event that Nacogdoches beats John Tyler), while a loss would leave Jacksonville either needing to beat Corsicana in Week 10 or relying on winless Nacogdoches to beat Lindale.
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Post by Tom on Oct 28, 2012 19:23:01 GMT -6
Region III Breakdown
17-4A Georgetown (5-0, 8-0) (2) Pflugerville Connally (5-0, 7-1) (1) Manor (4-1, 5-3) (3) Hutto (2-3, 4-4) (5) Elgin (2-3, 4-4) (8) Bastrop (2-3, 3-5) (4) Georgetown East View (0-5, 2-6) (6) Bastrop Cedar Creek (0-5, 1-7) (7)
Week 9 games: Bastrop at Elgin, Cedar Creek at East View, Connally at Georgetown, Hutto at Manor
Manor might be in already, but they're definitely in if they beat Hutto. That and a Elgin win over Bastrop would close up the last two playoff spots. Should Manor lose, they're in a bit of trouble with a likely loss at Connally in Week 10, while Elgin and Hutto play the two basement-dwellers -- Bastrop, which plays Georgetown in Week 10, has an uphill fight to make the playoffs.
18-4A Brenham (6-0, 7-1) (8) Huntsville (5-1, 6-2) (6) Montgomery (5-1, 5-3) (1) Magnolia West (4-3, 6-3) (3) Bryan Rudder (3-4, 3-6) (9) Waller (2-4, 3-5) (7) Willis (2-4, 2-6) (4) Conroe Caney Creek (1-5, 2-6) (2) Magnolia (0-6, 1-7) (5)
Week 9 games: Huntsville at Brenham, Rudder at Montgomery, Caney Creek at Waller, Magnolia at Willis
Rudder and Willis can both tie for fourth, but both would be out on tiebreakers; in any case, both still have a likely loss left on the schedule. Magnolia West can clinch on its bye week if Waller loses to Caney Creek; failing that, West and Waller will face off in Week 10 with the last playoff spot on the line.
19-4A Dayton (7-0, 9-0) (5) Humble Summer Creek (6-0, 8-0) (1) Barbers Hill (4-2, 6-2) (9) Crosby (4-2, 5-3) (6) Kingwood Park (3-4, 5-4) (3) Houston King (2-4, 2-6) (2) Humble (2-4, 2-6) (4) New Caney (0-6, 1-7) (7) Porter (0-6, 0-8) (8)
Week 9 games: Barbers Hill at Summer Creek, Humble at Crosby, Kingwood Park at King, Porter at New Caney
Unrelated, but I love it when the schedule works out to where the district title game is in Week 10 -- and even better when it's between two undefeated teams, which will happen here if Summer Creek wins in Week 9. In any case, this district is (almost) a wrap. Humble can still manage to get in if they win out and Crosby loses out; but, neither of those is going to happen (even if Crosby somehow manages to lose to Humble this week, they get a layup against winless Porter in Week 10.)
20-4A Nederland (5-0, 7-1) (2) Vidor (4-1, 7-1) (4) Livingston (4-1, 4-4) (6) Little Cypress-Mauriceville (3-2, 4-4) (7) Beaumont Central (2-3, 2-6) (1) Beaumont Ozen (1-4, 2-6) (5) Port Neches-Groves (1-4, 2-6) (3) Lumberton (0-5, 0-8) (8)
Week 9 games: LC-M at Central, Ozen at PN-G, Livingston at Vidor, Nederland at Lumberton
LC-M can complete the playoff picture with a win this week. If they lose, Beaumont Central -- which faces Nederland in Week 10 -- isn't likely to pass them in the standings but it will make life very difficult for LC-M. The other key game that comes into play, then, is the Ozen-PN-G game. If Ozen wins that one, then Ozen could easily force a three-way tie by beating Lumberton in Week 10 and, depending on the tiebreakers, might win that. If PN-G wins, though, they've already lost to both Central and LC-M, and that would mean Central would get in unless LC-M manages to beat Vidor in Week 10. I'm struggling to find situations where Livingston or Vidor misses the playoffs; both of them might be in already, and in any case it's highly unlikely either of them will miss out.
21-4A Hou. North Forest (7-0, 9-0) (7) Hou. Reagan (5-1, 6-2) (1) Hou. Sharpstown (4-2, 6-2) (8) Hou. Waltrip (3-3, 4-3) (4) Hou. Milby (3-3, 3-5) (2) Hou. Wheatley (3-3, 3-5) (9) Hou. Davis (2-4, 2-6) (5) Hou. Austin (1-6, 1-8) (3) Hou. Lee (0-6, 1-7) (6)
Week 9 games: Austin at Sharpstown, Davis at Wheatley, Lee at Milby, Waltrip at Reagan
Sharpstown should lock up a playoff bid over the next couple of weeks (they play the two bottom-dwellers), so the focus here is really on the three-team logjam at 3-3. Waltrip plays Milby in Week 10, so Wheatley will need to win this week to have a shot, because they're not winning in Week 10 -- they play North Forest, who's made an utter mockery of this district (winning seven district games by a combined score of 417-13; they haven't been scored on in their last five games. My hat is off to them.) Milby, on the other hand, has a very simple mission: win out, and they're in. Waltrip can do that as well, but their task is a bit harder since they're an underdog this week against Reagan and would lose a straight tie with Wheatley; depending on the tiebreaker rules, they might lose a three-way tie with Wheatley and Milby as well. In any case, a Wheatley loss this week would likely make the Waltrip-Milby game for all the marbles (again, we're assuming Wheatley will get steamrolled by North Forest.)
22-4A FB Marshall (5-0, 8-0) (8) Hou. Stratford (4-1, 6-2) (3) Tomball (4-1, 4-4) (4) FB Ridge Point (3-2, 4-4) (6) FB Willowridge (2-3, 3-5) (7) Hou. Northbrook (1-4, 3-5) (1) Tomball Memorial (1-4, 1-7) (5) Hou. Spring Woods (0-5, 2-6) (2)
Week 9 games: Northbrook at Marshall, Ridge Point at Spring Woods, Willowridge at Memorial, Tomball at Stratford
Ridge Point holds all tiebreakers, so basically, they only need to beat last-place Spring Woods to clinch the last playoff spot (in their first varsity season!) And even if they stub their toe, they can just let the Marshall buzzsaw do the dirty work for them against Willowridge in Week 10.
23-4A Richmond Foster (4-0, 6-2) (1) Rosenberg Terry (4-1, 7-2) (5) Angleton (3-1, 6-2) (2) Lamar Consolidated (2-2, 4-4) (4) Richmond George Ranch (1-3, 3-5) (3) Brazosport (1-4, 3-6) (7) Bay City (0-4, 0-8) (6)
Week 9 games: Foster at Angleton, Bay City at Lamar, Brazosport at George Ranch
Brazosport is probably done, but Bay City actually still has something of a chance if they can win their last two and have Foster take out Lamar... but that probably isn't happening. Angleton and Lamar can finish this one out with wins this week; but for Angleton, they absolutely need to win one of their last two (against Foster and Terry), because they'd actually miss the playoffs in a tiebreaker with George Ranch (who should beat Brazosport and Bay City to finish the season.)
24-4A Pearland Dawson (5-0, 8-0) (1) Texas City (4-1, 6-2) (7) Friendswood (3-2, 6-2) (2) Galena Park (3-2, 4-4) (3) Baytown Lee (2-3, 5-3) (6) Baytown Goose Creek (2-3, 4-4) (4) Galveston Ball (1-4, 2-6) (5) Santa Fe (0-5, 0-8) (8)
Week 9 games: Goose Creek at Galena Park, Friendswood at Lee, Dawson at Ball, Texas City at Santa Fe
The Goose Creek-Galena Park and Friendswood-Lee matchups are the key ones this week; either Friendswood or Galena Park can clinch with a win. But Friendswood, which already has wins over Galena Park and Goose Creek, is in a good position regardless; should they flub the game against Lee, they can probably just beat Ball in Week 10 and they're fine. Lee, meanwhile, has losses to Galena Park and Goose Creek and faces Texas City in Week 10, so they're likely screwed either way. For Galena Park, though, the situation is the opposite: if they lose this week, they're hoping for winless Santa Fe to beat Goose Creek while sending up a prayer against Dawson, so it's probably in their best interest to take care of business this week.
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Post by gpking on Oct 28, 2012 20:05:28 GMT -6
Tom you sure do a great job. You get the (At-a-boy)
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Post by Tom on Oct 28, 2012 20:59:19 GMT -6
Region IV Breakdown
25-4A Cedar Park (4-0, 6-2) (3) Leander (4-1, 8-1) (1) CP Vista Ridge (3-1, 7-1) (4) Leander Rouse (2-2, 5-3) (2) Austin Vandegrift (2-3, 4-5) (5) Marble Falls (0-4, 3-5) (7) Dripping Springs (0-4, 3-5) (6)
Week 9 games: Vandegrift at Rouse, Vista Ridge at Cedar Park, Dripping Springs at Marble Falls
This district, basically, comes down to the Vandegrift-Rouse game. If Rouse wins, they're in and so is Vista Ridge (Vista Ridge can also clinch a bid on their own by beating Cedar Park.) If Vandegrift wins, Rouse will have to beat Vista Ridge in Week 10 to have a shot, unless Vista Ridge beats Cedar Park this week, which would put Rouse out.
26-4A Austin McCallum (4-0, 6-3) (2) Austin Travis (3-1, 6-2) (5) Austin LBJ (3-1, 3-5) (1) Austin Reagan (1-3, 2-6) (6) Austin Crockett (1-3, 2-6) (4) Austin Lanier (0-4, 0-8) (3)
Week 9 games: Crockett at Reagan, Lanier at McCallum, LBJ at Travis
Because Eastside Memorial decided after realignment came out not to compete here -- instead playing an outlaw schedule -- 26-4A concludes its regular season in Week 9. So, McCallum and LBJ are locked in as the Division I teams, with McCallum being the #1 seed; Travis is the #1 seed in Division II; and the Reagan-Crockett winner will get the #2 seed in Division II. It would be a pretty big upset if anybody in this district were to win a playoff game.
27-4A Alamo Heights (5-0, 7-1) (5) Hays Consolidated (4-1, 7-1) (3) Kerrville Tivy (4-1, 5-3) (6) Seguin (3-2, 4-4) (2) Lockhart (2-3, 5-3) (7) Boerne Champion (2-3, 4-4) (8) Kyle Lehman (0-5, 1-7) (1) Schertz Clemens (0-5, 0-8) (4)
Week 9 games: Champion at Hays, Tivy at Seguin, Lehman at Lockhart, Alamo Heights at Clemens
There's an outside chance that the five teams competing for the last three playoff spots could wind up in a five-way tie at 4-3; it's not likely, but who knows who would be out in that scenario. In any case, Hays and Tivy can both get in with a win this week; Seguin can get in with a win and a Hays win (in that scenario, Champion would be eliminated.) In the more likely scenario where Hays and Tivy win this week, the last playoff spot would come down to Seguin and Champion in Week 10 -- Lockhart (assuming they beat Lehman) would probably lose a three-way tiebreaker, so they'd need Seguin to lose to Champion and then come up with an unlikely win over Tivy to get in.
28-4A SA Brennan (5-0, 9-0) (3) SA Jefferson (4-0, 4-4) (4) SA Edison (2-2, 5-3) (5) SA Brackenridge (2-2, 4-4) (2) SA Highlands (1-3, 3-5) (1) SA Lanier (1-3, 1-7) (6) SA Burbank (0-5, 0-9) (7)
Week 9 games: Brackenridge at Lanier, Brennan at Jefferson, Edison at Highlands
If Brackenridge and Edison both win this week, this one's really simple. Other than that? Well, Brackenridge has beaten Edison already and still has to play Highlands in Week 10, which puts them in decent shape even with a loss -- although Lanier, which plays Burbank in Week 10, would likely get to 3-3 with a win this week. Speaking of Lanier, they've beaten Highlands and lost to Edison. Edison, if they lose this week, given that they'd have tiebreaker losses to both Highlands and Brackenridge would absolutely need to beat Jefferson in Week 10 (doable, but they probably won't want to be behind the 8-ball like that.)
29-4A Floresville (4-1, 6-2) (7) Medina Valley (4-1, 6-2) (8) SA Harlandale (3-2, 6-2) (1) Uvalde (3-2, 3-5) (5) SA Kennedy (2-3, 5-3) (3) SA Southside (2-3, 4-4) (4) SA McCollum (2-3, 3-5) (2) SA Memorial (0-5, 0-8) (6)
Week 9 games: Memorial at Medina Valley, Floresville at Kennedy, Uvalde at Harlandale, McCollum at Southside
Honestly, Floresville and Medina Valley are probably already in, but after 28 districts my brain gave up on trying to figure out the myriad scenarios in this convoluted district. Suffice to say that if they're not already in, both can clinch with a win this week. As for the rest of the district -- I think ("think" being the operative word) Harlandale clinches with a win and a Southside loss, and Uvalde clinches with a win and a McCollum loss. None of the three 2-3 teams can clinch this week, but none of them are doing themselves any favors with a loss this week, either. If I had to pick a district where there's going to be some insane four-team tie, this would be the one. Seriously, if Harlandale loses out, Southside beats McCollum, and Kennedy splits their last two, there's your four-way tie. (Kennedy would win that tiebreaker, by the way.)
30-4A Port Lavaca Calhoun (5-0, 8-0) (5) CC Calallen (3-1, 6-2) (4) Gregory-Portland (3-2, 7-2) (3) Victoria East (2-2, 3-5) (1) Victoria West (1-3, 4-4) (2) CC Tuloso-Midway (1-3, 3-5) (6) Beeville Jones (0-4, 2-6) (7)
Week 9 games: Calallen at Beeville, Tuloso-Midway at West, Calhoun at East
I'm honestly not sure, Beeville might be eliminated already, but in any case Calallen should eliminate them this week; that would also put Calallen in. G-P can clinch on its bye week if Calhoun and T-M win; failing that, they can lock it up by beating West in Week 10. T-M, which already beat East, will be in pretty good shape with a win over West. I'm not sure how it would work out in a three-way tie (where West beats T-M, T-M beats Beeville and West loses to G-P) -- it depends on whether 30-4A goes with straight margin (probably T-M unless they get blown out by West) or if they go back to head-to-head (West wins that one.) For East, since they're likely going to lose their last two, they'll basically need West to beat T-M and then lose to G-P, and Beeville to beat T-M in Week 10; that would put them in a tie with West at 2-4.
31-4A CC Flour Bluff (5-0, 8-0) (5) CC Ray (4-1, 6-2) (1) Alice (3-2, 5-3) (7) Laredo Nixon (2-3, 4-4) (2) CC Miller (2-3, 4-4) (8) Laredo Martin (2-3, 3-5) (4) CC Moody (1-4, 1-7) (3) Laredo Cigarroa (1-4, 1-7) (6)
Week 9 games: Alice at Miller, Moody at Flour Bluff, Ray at Cigarroa, Martin at Nixon
Alice and Ray can clinch with wins this week, while Cigarroa and Moody will be eliminated with (likely) losses. Martin actually can clinch the fourth playoff spot if they beat Nixon and Alice beats Miller, as they'd be guaranteed to finish in no worse than a tie with Nixon or Miller and would have beaten both (excepting, of course, the unlikely event that Cigarroa beats Ray); if Nixon wins, they'll be in pretty good shape, though they could still miss the playoffs if they lose to Flour Bluff and Miller beats Ray in Week 10, however unlikely that is.
32-4A (On the field) Mission (5-0, 8-0) (1) Mercedes (4-1, 6-2) (6) Edcouch-Elsa (4-1, 6-2) (7) Roma (2-3, 5-3) (4) Pharr Valley View (2-3, 5-3) (8) Mission Veterans (2-3, 4-4) (3) Rio Grande City (1-4, 1-7) (2) PSJA Southwest (0-5, 2-6) (5)
(With Edcouch-Elsa forfeits) Mission (5-0, 8-0) Mercedes (5-0, 7-1) Roma (3-2, 6-2) Mission Veterans (3-2, 5-3) Pharr Valley View (3-3, 6-3) Rio Grande City (2-4, 2-7) PSJA Southwest (1-4, 3-5) Edcouch-Elsa (0-7, 0-10)
Week 9 games: Edcouch-Elsa at Valley View, Roma at Mercedes, Mission at Southwest, Veterans at Rio Grande City
The UIL will hear Edcouch-Elsa's appeal this week, and obviously, the result of that hearing will make a huge difference here. If their appeal is granted, E-E can wrap up a playoff berth with a win this week. Mercedes can also clinch with a win this week, and Veterans would clinch with a win and losses by Roma and Valley View; but even if they don't, Veterans would probably get in with a win against Southwest in Week 10 (having already beaten both Roma and Valley View; either of those two would need to score an upset this week and then beat the other.)
If E-E's appeal is denied, well, obviously, they're out, and everybody but Mission gets a free win. That... changes things. Mercedes is already in, and Southwest is granted new life for a week (until they lose to Mission, anyway.) Veterans just needs a win to clinch a playoff bid, and things get considerably easier for Roma and Valley View, each of which would just need to beat the other (in Week 10) to get in. (And, for either of them, it would be their first playoff bid ever.) RGC still faces an uphill battle, though, needing to beat Veterans and also needing Southwest to do the same.
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Post by Tom on Oct 28, 2012 20:59:58 GMT -6
Tom you sure do a great job. You get the (At-a-boy) Thanks. My brain is seriously mush right now though. Why are there so many freaking districts?
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Post by hazzed on Oct 28, 2012 21:22:29 GMT -6
Tom you sure do a great job. You get the (At-a-boy) Thanks. My brain is seriously mush right now though. Why are there so many freaking districts? Damn Tom!! do you do this for fun or a Job??..LOL..nice!!
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Post by Tom on Oct 28, 2012 22:04:13 GMT -6
Thanks. My brain is seriously mush right now though. Why are there so many freaking districts? Damn Tom!! do you do this for fun or a Job??..LOL..nice!! Mostly for fun. Had a free Sunday afternoon, so... yeah.
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Post by gpjohn on Oct 29, 2012 6:29:51 GMT -6
Great job Tom. Thanks.
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Post by urbuddha on Oct 29, 2012 6:41:43 GMT -6
Good stuff. Thanks !
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Post by flowtowntigers on Oct 29, 2012 7:58:13 GMT -6
Nice work.
Yes Floresville and Medina Valley have a playoff spot locked up in 29-4A.
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Post by Tom on Oct 29, 2012 21:04:18 GMT -6
Nice work. Yes Floresville and Medina Valley have a playoff spot locked up in 29-4A. Thanks. I wasn't sure how all the possible tiebreakers worked out. Seven teams between 2-3 and 4-1.. yeesh.
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Post by flowtowntigers on Oct 30, 2012 6:59:15 GMT -6
Nice work. Yes Floresville and Medina Valley have a playoff spot locked up in 29-4A. Thanks. I wasn't sure how all the possible tiebreakers worked out. Seven teams between 2-3 and 4-1.. yeesh. The Frontier Bowl Harlandale vs McCollum should be on hot ticket with a playoff spot on the line this year.
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Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2012 7:26:32 GMT -6
Good work Tom. Very good work!
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