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Post by johnnyduval on Aug 30, 2011 14:53:27 GMT -6
Tropical Disturbance 35
Issued: 03:12 PM CDT Tuesday August 30, 2011
Current Location: 18.5N/84.5W
Geographic Reference: Northwest Caribbean
Movement: West-Northwest at 8 mph
Max Winds: 25 mph
Organizational Trend: No change - very disorganized
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm within 48 hours: 5%
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm beyond 48 hours: 60%
Forecast Track Confidence: Average first 72 hours, low beyond then due to poor model agreement.
Changes From Our Previous Forecast
There are no significant changes on this advisory.
Our Forecast
The only thing the computer models agree on is that a weak area of low pressure will form in the northwest Gulf by Friday. Beyond then, models are wildly divergent on the longer-term solution. We think that there is a good chance that a tropical depression will form in th e northwest Gulf east of Brownsville by Friday evening. By Saturday, the depression could become a tropical storm in the northwest Gulf.
As we mentioned above, there is considerable uncertainty in the track beyond about Friday, but we still think that a more likely scenario would have the storm tracking westward into the lower to middle Texas coast during the day on Sunday, probably as a weak to moderate tropical storm. However, if the system remains over water for an extended period of time, then we cannot discount the possibility that it could strengthen to a hurricane prior to moving inland into Texas or even in Louisiana.
Expected Impacts on Land
Texas/Louisiana Coasts: The disturbance may spread heavy rain into the area by Saturday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorms may begin increasing off the Texas and Louisiana coasts as early as Thursday evening, which means that Thursday may be the last day for potential evacuations offshore. But with that decaying frontal boundary currently across the central Gulf, there may be scattered thunderstorms off the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next several days in advance of the disturbance and possible development.
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Post by CC_Varmints on Aug 30, 2011 15:01:13 GMT -6
City of Galveston is already organizing plans if it comes towrds the Texas Coast.
"Subject: Tropical Disturbance 35
Importance: High
Good morning,
As we know things change fast this time of year.
Computer models have come into much better agreement on the development of a low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico late this week. Development appears to originate from a combination of factors. Moisture from Disturbance 35 moves northwestward and into the northwest Gulf by Friday morning. That moisture interacts with a decaying frontal boundary now located over the central Gulf, forming a low pressure center off the lower to middle Texas coast in the general vicinity of 25N/95W.
We think that there is a better-than-not chance that a tropical storm will form in the northwest Gulf of Mexico later this week, probably not until late Friday or more likely on Saturday. Beyond that point, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to how long the storm system may remain offshore . Steering currents across the northern Gulf may be quite weak by Saturday. The most likely scenario would be for the system to move ashore into Texas either late Saturday or on Sunday as a tropical storm. However, if the system remains over water for an extended period of time, then we cannot discount the possibility that it could strengthen to a hurricane prior to moving inland into Texas or Louisiana.
I will keep you posted as development changes..."
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2011 15:06:20 GMT -6
As noted in the discussion, there is no target for this thing it it develops. I seen specualation from the models that it might develop into a storm and go straight to GP Johns old stomping grounds on the bayou or hug the coast and go down to Mexico just south of the Rio. If it goes into Cajun Country in an organized fashion, it will suck all the moisture out of the air and we'd be back in the mid 100's for highs for a few days. If it hugs the coast , depending how close it could give us a bunch of rain or little or none. It would be better for it to stay disogranized and hit the coast so everyone can get a shot of rain.
Stay tuned ladies and don't panic.
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Post by CC_Varmints on Aug 30, 2011 15:13:17 GMT -6
I'll be in Schertz on Saturday for my grandson's 2nd birthday party. So come on TD #35 or TS Lee or Hurricane Lee...bring some rain!!!
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Post by johnnyduval on Aug 31, 2011 11:53:33 GMT -6
Tropical Disturbance 35
Issued: 04:29 AM CDT Wednesday August 31, 2011
Current Location: 20.5N/86.5W
Geographic Reference: Northwest Caribbean and Yucatan
Movement: West-northwest at 8 mph
Max Winds: 25 mph
Organizational Trend: Little change
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm within 48 hours: 15%
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm beyond 48 hours: 70%
Forecast Track Confidence: Average first 72 hours, low beyond then due to poor model agreement.
Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have slightly increased the chances of development within the first 48 hours and beyond. Our new probabilities are 15/70, up from 10/65. The chances of the system becoming a hurricane have also been increased from 20 to 25 percent. We have also slowed the forward motion somewhat beyond 72 hours. This may give the disturbance more time to develop over the Gulf of Mexico.
Our Forecast
The area of disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean is likely to form into a broad area of low pressure in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. There after, the forecast is highly uncertain. The computer forecast models continue to have different forecasts. However, what is becoming likely is that steering currents will be weak and only a slow motion is likely after 72 hours. Therefore, we have slowed the forecast somewhat from the previous forecast and do not bring the system inland until next Monday or Tuesday.
Since the system may have additional time over the water, and environmental conditions appear as if they will be favorable, we have slightly increased the chances of development. There is now a 70 percent chance that the disturbance will eventually develop into at least a depression. The chances of the system becoming a hurricane are now 25 percent.
Expected Impacts on Land
Texas/Louisiana Coasts: The disturbance may spread heavy rain into the area by Saturday. Due to the very slow motion expected near the coast, the squalls may last for several days.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorms may begin increasing off the Texas and Louisiana coasts as early as Thursday evening, which means that Thursday may be the last day for potential evacuations offshore. But with that decaying frontal boundary currently across the central Gulf, there may be scattered thunderstorms off the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next several days in advance of the disturbance and possible development.
The next update will be issued by 10AM CDT.
Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / George Harvey
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Post by CC_Varmints on Aug 31, 2011 12:26:47 GMT -6
Date: August 31, 2011 12:54:53 PM CDT
Latest Update.
Tropical Disturbance 35
The area of disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean is likely to form into a broad area of low pressure in the northwest Gulf of Mexico over the next several days, and quite possibly into a tropical storm on Saturday. On this, almost all of the models agree. It's the track beyond Friday and Saturday that is in question. Models are wildly divergent on a possible solution. Much will depend upon when and where development occurs.
We think it is very likely that a tropical storm will form somewhere off the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the weekend. If the storm was to remain offshore for 2-3 days as some models indicate, then it could very easily become a hurricane. If the storm moves ashore more quickly, as the Canadian model forecasts, then it would likely only reach tropical storm strength. Given the projected eastward movement of the high pressure over the U.S. this weekend, it may be more likely that any developing storm would move northwestward and inland between the mid Texas coast and the mid Louisiana coast by late this weekend, probably as a tropical storm.
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Post by johnnyduval on Aug 31, 2011 14:19:16 GMT -6
Tropical Disturbance 35
Issued: 02:31 PM CDT Wednesday August 31, 2011
Current Location: 24N/87.8W
Geographic Reference: Northwest Caribbean and Yucatan
Movement: Northwest at 8-10 mph
Max Winds: 35 mph
Organizational Trend: Slowly becoming better organized
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm within 48 hours: 40%
Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm beyond 48 hours: 75%
Forecast Track Confidence: Average first 72 hours, low beyond then due to poor model agreement.
Changes From Our Previous Forecast
We have increased the development chances from 15% to 40% during the first 48 hours due to the fact that the expected time of tropical storm development (Friday afternoon to Saturday) is now nearly within the next 48 hours.
Our Forecast
It is looking more likely that the disturbance will move into the northwest Gulf by Friday and stall off the southwest to central Louisiana coast by Saturday. High pressure to its north over the weekend may result in very little movement through early next week. By next Tuesday, the high pressure to its north should have moved to the east, allowing the system to begin tracking to the west to southwest toward Texas. We think that such a track is now the more likely scenario, though it remains uncertain if a weakness in the high pressure to the north on Sunday might allow for a turn to the northeast and an acceleration toward southeast Louisiana, as the American model continues to forecast. For now, we are discounting the northeasterly track scenario. Confidence in the long-term track remains low.
Given the high oceanic heat content across the Gulf and only light to moderate shear, we think that the disturbance will most likely become a tropical depression by Friday afternoon and a tropical storm on Saturday. If it does remain stalled offshore on Sunday and Monday, then it will probably become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf and continue to slowly intensify up until its eventual landfall in Texas around the middle of next week.
Expected Impacts on Land
Texas/Louisiana Coasts: The disturbance may spread heavy rain into the area by Saturday. Due to the very slow motion expected near the coast, the squalls may last for several days.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Thunderstorms may begin increasing off the Texas and Louisiana coasts as early as Thursday late afternoon, which means that Thursday may be the last day of good helicopter flying weather. But with that decaying frontal boundary currently across the central Gulf, there may be scattered thunderstorms off the Texas and Louisiana coasts over the next several days in advance of the disturbance and possible development.
The next update will be issued by 11PM CDT.
Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / David Piech
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Post by CC_Varmints on Sept 1, 2011 13:44:00 GMT -6
Thursday, September 01, 2011 1:18 PM CDT
Tropical Disturbance 35
Disturbance 35 is expected to move very slowly toward southwestern Louisiana today and tomorrow. Once near the Louisiana coast it will become virtually stationary, and could remain in that general area through the weekend. By early next week we think it will begin a track to the southwest. We think landfall will be in South Texas or northeastern Mexico around the middle of next week. Alternate scenarios include a track into southern Louisiana or inland near Sabine Pass on the Texas/Louisiana line. We think those scenarios are unlikely due to high pressure expected to build to the north.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms extend across much of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some outer squalls are already moving into southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, and extend southward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Upper-level wind shear across the area is a prohibiting factor in development. The shear appears to be decreasing and is expected to completely diminish over the next 24 hours. The result will be conditions that are favorable for strengthening. This disturbance could be declared a depression or even a tropical storm later today or tomorrow. It could become a hurricane over the weekend if it does not interact with land before moving away to the southwest.
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Post by flowtowntigers on Sept 2, 2011 6:06:34 GMT -6
Thursday, September 01, 2011 1:18 PM CDT Tropical Disturbance 35 Disturbance 35 is expected to move very slowly toward southwestern Louisiana today and tomorrow. Once near the Louisiana coast it will become virtually stationary, and could remain in that general area through the weekend. By early next week we think it will begin a track to the southwest. We think landfall will be in South Texas or northeastern Mexico around the middle of next week. Alternate scenarios include a track into southern Louisiana or inland near Sabine Pass on the Texas/Louisiana line. We think those scenarios are unlikely due to high pressure expected to build to the north. Widespread showers and thunderstorms extend across much of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some outer squalls are already moving into southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, and extend southward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Upper-level wind shear across the area is a prohibiting factor in development. The shear appears to be decreasing and is expected to completely diminish over the next 24 hours. The result will be conditions that are favorable for strengthening. This disturbance could be declared a depression or even a tropical storm later today or tomorrow. It could become a hurricane over the weekend if it does not interact with land before moving away to the southwest. Man you poor bastards in South Central Texas cant catch a break.  |
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Post by gpwf on Sept 2, 2011 6:16:15 GMT -6
Thursday, September 01, 2011 1:18 PM CDT Tropical Disturbance 35 Disturbance 35 is expected to move very slowly toward southwestern Louisiana today and tomorrow. Once near the Louisiana coast it will become virtually stationary, and could remain in that general area through the weekend. By early next week we think it will begin a track to the southwest. We think landfall will be in South Texas or northeastern Mexico around the middle of next week. Alternate scenarios include a track into southern Louisiana or inland near Sabine Pass on the Texas/Louisiana line. We think those scenarios are unlikely due to high pressure expected to build to the north. Widespread showers and thunderstorms extend across much of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Some outer squalls are already moving into southeastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, and extend southward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Upper-level wind shear across the area is a prohibiting factor in development. The shear appears to be decreasing and is expected to completely diminish over the next 24 hours. The result will be conditions that are favorable for strengthening. This disturbance could be declared a depression or even a tropical storm later today or tomorrow. It could become a hurricane over the weekend if it does not interact with land before moving away to the southwest. Man you poor bastards in South Central Texas cant catch a break. It's so dry that even PUD field is turning brown. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2011 8:13:54 GMT -6
Man you poor bastards in South Central Texas cant catch a break. It's so dry that even PUD field is turning brown. They were out there yesterday painting it green! |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2011 8:14:37 GMT -6
Yep.... This storm is Cajun country bound. Oh well, as they say-Next!
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Post by CC_Varmints on Sept 2, 2011 11:03:13 GMT -6
Tropical Depression: 13 Updated: 11:00 – 09/02/11 Tropical Depression Thirteen should track very slowly to the north-northwest to north over the next 48 hours, reaching the mid Louisiana coast on Saturday night or Sunday morning near western Vermilion Bay. The storm should either remain stationary or execute a small loop near or just off the mid Louisiana coast on Sunday before beginning to accelerate to the east and east-northeast on Monday morning. The center may pass over New Orleans on Tuesday morning then track northeastward into southern Mississippi by noon on Tuesday. Thereafter, it should accelerate to the northeast across eastern Mississippi/western Alabama where it will weaken to a remnant low. Recent observations and satellite data indicate that the low-level circulation is becoming better-defined this morning as wind shear decreases. The depression should gradually strengthen over the next 48 hours as it approaches the south Louisiana coast. Our forecast takes the storm nearly to hurricane strength by Sunday, but much depends on its proximity to the coast. Should the depression stall a little south of our forecast position on Sunday morning, then it will likely become a hurricane during the day on Sunday. The storm may have sustained winds very near hurricane strength as it begins moving eastward on Monday and moves ashore in southeast Louisiana. Slow weakening is expected across southeast Louisiana followed by more rapid weakening after the center crosses into southern Mississippi on Tuesday. Flood New Orleans...like they really need the rain...  |
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