Post by CC_Varmints on May 15, 2013 8:41:14 GMT -6
From DCTF:
Starting from scratch
Nobody's going to feel bad for a team that has to replace lost starters. Why? Because almost every high school in the state has to fill some voids.
There are only a handful of teams in the state that are returning all 22 of their starters from last year, and that list is almost entirely comprised of schools in their infancy - like El Paso Eastlake, Georgetown East View, PSJA Southwest and Houston KIPP Sunnyside.
For literally every other team in Texas, there are holes to fill in the starting lineup, but that's part of the fun of football. You have your veterans - guys who have been there and proven they can be reliable pieces - and you have your replacements - players getting their first crack at becoming a viable piece of the team.
But... that doesn't mean that all teams are created equal in this. While almost everyone has someone to replace, some teams have far, far more to replace than others.
Take Tenaha, for example, the defending 1A Division II state runner-up. The Tigers are returning 20 of their 22 starters. Now, replacing those two starters won't be a picnic, but let's be honest: that's a pretty darn good place to be.
That's in stark contrast to a number of other teams, who have many, many holes to fill come fall.
Now, we've been over this before - a little more than a year ago, I did a study looking at the correlation between returning starters and success, and found that while state semifinalists had a higher-than-average number of returning starters, it wasn't by much. That said, we also found that state semifinalists averaged 5.9 returning starters on offense and 5.6 returning starters on defense, so experience does have its value.
And there are some units at very prominent programs - teams that we've come to expect a lot out of - that will be replacing a whole heck of a lot this season. Here are some of the "under construction" units that we've got our eye on.
Hewitt Midway's offense
Here's a complete list of the starters that coach Terry Gambill's Panthers will have back on offense in 2013: offensive lineman Christian Beard. This concludes the list. That's right: the Panthers have just one starter back from their 13-1 squad a year ago. There's promise all around - keep an eye out for WR Devontre Stricklin - but for now, there are a lot of question marks.
Waco La Vega's defense
Sticking with central Texas, coach Willie Williams is going to have a lot of holes to fill if the Pirates' defense is going to be its usual sturdy self. How many holes? Well, there's only one starter back from last year. Yep: one. It's going to be a struggle, and you have to expect the offense of RBs Javon Arnett and Ayorinde Gibson to carry them early.
Munday's entire team
Don't look now, but the defending 1A Division II state champions have a lot of replacing to do. It's not just the star power - Dee Paul inparticular - but rather everyone. Coach Patrick Corcoran welcomes back just four starters - two on each side of the ball. There are some key cogs there, like DE L.J. Collier and OL Jerico Thompson, but the Moguls have a lot of pieces to find if they're going to repeat.
El Campo's entire team
The Ricebirds' run to the 3A Division I state title game was one of 2012's most compelling stories, but now, El Campo has a lot of reloading to do. Coach Bob Gillis' team brings just one starter back on offense - center Zeke Tsika - and just two starters on defense - LB B.J. Flagg and DB Koy Kresta. El Campo is traditionally very deep, and will still be one of 3A's largest schools, but that's a tall task for any program.
Other units we're keeping an eye on: Spring Westfield's defense (2 returning starters), Katy's offense (2 returning starters), DeSoto's offense (2 returning starters), Abilene Wylie's offense and defense (2 returning starters each), West Orange-Stark's defense (2 returning starters), Gatesville's offense and defense (2 returning starters each).
Starting from scratch
Nobody's going to feel bad for a team that has to replace lost starters. Why? Because almost every high school in the state has to fill some voids.
There are only a handful of teams in the state that are returning all 22 of their starters from last year, and that list is almost entirely comprised of schools in their infancy - like El Paso Eastlake, Georgetown East View, PSJA Southwest and Houston KIPP Sunnyside.
For literally every other team in Texas, there are holes to fill in the starting lineup, but that's part of the fun of football. You have your veterans - guys who have been there and proven they can be reliable pieces - and you have your replacements - players getting their first crack at becoming a viable piece of the team.
But... that doesn't mean that all teams are created equal in this. While almost everyone has someone to replace, some teams have far, far more to replace than others.
Take Tenaha, for example, the defending 1A Division II state runner-up. The Tigers are returning 20 of their 22 starters. Now, replacing those two starters won't be a picnic, but let's be honest: that's a pretty darn good place to be.
That's in stark contrast to a number of other teams, who have many, many holes to fill come fall.
Now, we've been over this before - a little more than a year ago, I did a study looking at the correlation between returning starters and success, and found that while state semifinalists had a higher-than-average number of returning starters, it wasn't by much. That said, we also found that state semifinalists averaged 5.9 returning starters on offense and 5.6 returning starters on defense, so experience does have its value.
And there are some units at very prominent programs - teams that we've come to expect a lot out of - that will be replacing a whole heck of a lot this season. Here are some of the "under construction" units that we've got our eye on.
Hewitt Midway's offense
Here's a complete list of the starters that coach Terry Gambill's Panthers will have back on offense in 2013: offensive lineman Christian Beard. This concludes the list. That's right: the Panthers have just one starter back from their 13-1 squad a year ago. There's promise all around - keep an eye out for WR Devontre Stricklin - but for now, there are a lot of question marks.
Waco La Vega's defense
Sticking with central Texas, coach Willie Williams is going to have a lot of holes to fill if the Pirates' defense is going to be its usual sturdy self. How many holes? Well, there's only one starter back from last year. Yep: one. It's going to be a struggle, and you have to expect the offense of RBs Javon Arnett and Ayorinde Gibson to carry them early.
Munday's entire team
Don't look now, but the defending 1A Division II state champions have a lot of replacing to do. It's not just the star power - Dee Paul inparticular - but rather everyone. Coach Patrick Corcoran welcomes back just four starters - two on each side of the ball. There are some key cogs there, like DE L.J. Collier and OL Jerico Thompson, but the Moguls have a lot of pieces to find if they're going to repeat.
El Campo's entire team
The Ricebirds' run to the 3A Division I state title game was one of 2012's most compelling stories, but now, El Campo has a lot of reloading to do. Coach Bob Gillis' team brings just one starter back on offense - center Zeke Tsika - and just two starters on defense - LB B.J. Flagg and DB Koy Kresta. El Campo is traditionally very deep, and will still be one of 3A's largest schools, but that's a tall task for any program.
Other units we're keeping an eye on: Spring Westfield's defense (2 returning starters), Katy's offense (2 returning starters), DeSoto's offense (2 returning starters), Abilene Wylie's offense and defense (2 returning starters each), West Orange-Stark's defense (2 returning starters), Gatesville's offense and defense (2 returning starters each).
